What is Natur International Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Natur International Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Natur International (Natur International) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Jachthavenweg 124, Suite 770, Amsterdam, NLD, 1081
Natur International Corp offers juices and snacks. The company's products include Turmeric Tiger, Spicy Greens, Snacks box, Pearfection, Berrylicious, Matcha Madness, and Goji Galore, among others.
Executives
| Nl Life Sciences Bv |
10 percent owner |
124 JACHTHAVENWEG AMSTERDAM P7 1081KJ |
| Rudolf Derk Huisman |
director |
BAAMBRUGSE ZUWE 173 VINKEVEEN P7 3645 AG |
| Robert Alan Paladino |
director, officer: CEO |
1497 MAIN STREET, #373 DUNEDIN FL 34698 |
| Christopher J Spencer |
director, other: Former CEO |
|
| John Lawrence Busshaus |
other: Former CFO |
5001 BAUM BOULEVARD, SUITE 770 PITTSBURGH PA 15213 |
| Ellen Berkers |
director, officer: CEO, CFO |
JACHTHAVENWEG 124 AMSTERDAM P7 1081 KJ |
| Sfi Gestion De Participaciones Minoritarias, S.l.u. |
10 percent owner |
CARRETERA DE MADRID-CARTAGENA, KM. 383 ESPINARDO MURCIA U3 30100 |
| Efficiency Investment Fund - 6th Wave Sp |
10 percent owner |
C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTRE, 27 HOSPITAL RD GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY-1-9008 |
| Groupe Gfg Holding S.a. (luxembourg) |
10 percent owner |
1, RUE JEAN PIRET LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2350 |
| Douglas Michael Polinsky |
director |
130 LAKE ST. WEST, WAYZATA MN 55391 |
| Denis Yevstifeyev |
director |
5001 BAUM BLVD. SUITE 770 PITTSBURGH PA 15213 |
| John Greg Smith |
director |
5001 BAUM BLVD. SUITE 770 PITTSBURGH PA 15213 |
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