GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » National Penn Bancshares Inc (NAS:NPBC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

National Penn Bancshares (National Penn Bancshares) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is National Penn Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


National Penn Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

National Penn Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of National Penn Bancshares's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


National Penn Bancshares (National Penn Bancshares) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
National Penn Bancshares Inc is a Pennsylvania business corporation incorporated in January 1982. The Company is a registered bank holding company. The Company provides financial services, through its subsidiary National Penn Bank. The Company through its subsidiaries is engaged in activities related to the business of banking. National Penn's financial services affiliates consist of National Penn Wealth Management, N.A., including its National Penn Investors Trust Company division; National Penn Capital Advisors, Inc.; Institutional Advisors, LLC; National Penn Insurance Services Group, Inc., including its Higgins Insurance and Caruso Benefits divisions. Commercial banking is its main business focus. Commercial banking services are provided to small and medium sized businesses with annual gross revenues generally between $1 million and $100 million located in its market areas. offer a wide range of products including short-term loans for seasonal and working capital purposes, term loans secured by real estate and other assets, loans for construction and expansion needs, revolving credit facilities, and a full array of cash management services, including remote deposit capture, disbursement, collection, investment and electronic banking services. Consumer banking offers deposit accounts, which include demand, NOW, money market, other checking and savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. It also offers consumer loan products such as installment loans, home equity loans, residential mortgage loans, education loans and credit cards. In addition, it offers automated teller services, safe deposit and night depository facilities and internet banking services, including on-line bill paying and mobile banking. In addition to generation of fee income through its commercial and consumer banking operations, including mortgage lending the Company has a number of specialized investment and insurance businesses to develop fee income and to serve specific markets. The Company also provides loans directly to consumers within its markets to finance personal residences, automobiles, college tuition, home improvements and other personal needs. The Company also makes indirect loans to customers for the purchase of both new and used vehicles. The majority of residential mortgages is conformed to FNMA and FHLMC underwriting criteria and is sold to secondary market investors. Other residential products such as jumbo mortgages are originated and typically held in its loan portfolio. The Company also provides home equity loans, home equity lines of credit and other consumer loans through its network of retail branch offices and its Private Banking division. The Company is subject to various federal and state statutes applicable to banks chartered in the United States, as well as regulations of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Executives
Natalye Paquin director 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Sandra Bodnyk officer: SEVP - Chief Risk Officer NATIONAL PENN BANCSHARES, INC, 645 HAMILTON STREET, ALLENTOWN PA 18101
Michael E. Martin director C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Llc 10 percent owner 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus X Partners, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Private Equity X, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus X Gp L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus X, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Wpp Gp Llc 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Partners, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Partners Gp Llc 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Charles R Kaye 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Joseph P. Landy 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus & Co. 10 percent owner 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK, NY NY 100173147
Tito L Lima officer: EVP - Corporate Controller 212 TOWHEE DRIVE, BOALSBURG PA 16827

National Penn Bancshares (National Penn Bancshares) Headlines