National Penn Bancshares (National Penn Bancshares) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $8.10 (As of May. 05, 2024)

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What is National Penn Bancshares Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-05), National Penn Bancshares's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $8.10.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

National Penn Bancshares's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for National Penn Bancshares is -32.35%.

The historical rank and industry rank for National Penn Bancshares's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

NPBC's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Banks industry.
Industry Median: 0.675
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

National Penn Bancshares Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for National Penn Bancshares's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

National Penn Bancshares Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

National Penn Bancshares Annual Data

Trend

Dec06

Dec07

Dec08

Dec09

Dec10

Dec11

Dec12

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Dec15

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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National Penn Bancshares Quarterly Data
	Mar11	Jun11	Sep11	Dec11	Mar12	Jun12	Sep12	Dec12	Mar13	Jun13	Sep13	Dec13	Mar14	Jun14	Sep14	Dec14	Mar15	Jun15	Sep15	Dec15
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of National Penn Bancshares's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, National Penn Bancshares's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

National Penn Bancshares's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, National Penn Bancshares's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where National Penn Bancshares's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

National Penn Bancshares Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.50%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> National Penn Bancshares's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $0.702.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

National Penn Bancshares's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

0.702

11.5406

8.10

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(8.1	-	10.72)	/	8.1
	=	-32.35 %

National Penn Bancshares (NAS:NPBC) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

National Penn Bancshares Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of National Penn Bancshares's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

National Penn Bancshares (National Penn Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » National Penn Bancshares Inc (NAS:NPBC) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.nationalpennbancshares.com

National Penn Bancshares Inc is a Pennsylvania business corporation incorporated in January 1982. The Company is a registered bank holding company. The Company provides financial services, through its subsidiary National Penn Bank. The Company through its subsidiaries is engaged in activities related to the business of banking. National Penn's financial services affiliates consist of National Penn Wealth Management, N.A., including its National Penn Investors Trust Company division; National Penn Capital Advisors, Inc.; Institutional Advisors, LLC; National Penn Insurance Services Group, Inc., including its Higgins Insurance and Caruso Benefits divisions. Commercial banking is its main business focus. Commercial banking services are provided to small and medium sized businesses with annual gross revenues generally between $1 million and $100 million located in its market areas. offer a wide range of products including short-term loans for seasonal and working capital purposes, term loans secured by real estate and other assets, loans for construction and expansion needs, revolving credit facilities, and a full array of cash management services, including remote deposit capture, disbursement, collection, investment and electronic banking services. Consumer banking offers deposit accounts, which include demand, NOW, money market, other checking and savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. It also offers consumer loan products such as installment loans, home equity loans, residential mortgage loans, education loans and credit cards. In addition, it offers automated teller services, safe deposit and night depository facilities and internet banking services, including on-line bill paying and mobile banking. In addition to generation of fee income through its commercial and consumer banking operations, including mortgage lending the Company has a number of specialized investment and insurance businesses to develop fee income and to serve specific markets. The Company also provides loans directly to consumers within its markets to finance personal residences, automobiles, college tuition, home improvements and other personal needs. The Company also makes indirect loans to customers for the purchase of both new and used vehicles. The majority of residential mortgages is conformed to FNMA and FHLMC underwriting criteria and is sold to secondary market investors. Other residential products such as jumbo mortgages are originated and typically held in its loan portfolio. The Company also provides home equity loans, home equity lines of credit and other consumer loans through its network of retail branch offices and its Private Banking division. The Company is subject to various federal and state statutes applicable to banks chartered in the United States, as well as regulations of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Executives

Natalye Paquin	director	14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Sandra Bodnyk	officer: SEVP - Chief Risk Officer	NATIONAL PENN BANCSHARES, INC, 645 HAMILTON STREET, ALLENTOWN PA 18101
Michael E. Martin	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Llc	10 percent owner	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus X Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Private Equity X, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus X Gp L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus X, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Wpp Gp Llc	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Partners Gp Llc	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Charles R Kaye	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Joseph P. Landy	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus & Co.	10 percent owner	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK, NY NY 100173147
Tito L Lima	officer: EVP - Corporate Controller	212 TOWHEE DRIVE, BOALSBURG PA 16827