What is LuxUrban Hotels Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
LuxUrban Hotels Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
LuxUrban Hotels (LuxUrban Hotels) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2125 Biscayne Boulevard, Suite 253, Miami, FL, USA, 33137
LuxUrban Hotels Inc utilizes a long-term lease, asset-light business model to acquire and manage a growing portfolio of short-term rental properties in metropolitan cities. It identifies, acquires, manages, and markets hotel rooms to business and vacation travelers under the consumer brand, LuxUrban. It manages a portfolio of hotel rooms in New York, Washington D.C., Miami Beach, New Orleans and Los Angeles.
Executives
| Brian Ferdinand |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
224 MUTTONTOWN EASTWOODS ROAD, MUTTONTOWN NY 11791 |
| Leonard Toboroff |
director |
39 N MOORE ST, STE 6B, NEW YORK NY 10013 |
| Kevin Michael Potts |
officer: Chief Revenue Officer |
2125 BISCAYNE BLVD SUITE 253, MIAMI FL 33137 |
| Donald Engel |
director |
570 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Shanoop Kothari |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2865 SCOTT STREET, SUITE 107, VISTA CA 92081 |
| Aimee Nelson |
director |
2125 BISCAYNE BLVD SUITE 253, MIAMI FL 33137 |
| Jeffrey Webb |
director |
6589 GREEN SHADOWS, STE 6B, MEMPHIS TN 38119 |
| David Gurfein |
officer: President & COO |
2125 BISCAYNE BLVD SUITE 253, MIAMI FL 33137 |
| Karl Rothman |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
2125 BISCAYNE BLVD SUITE 253, MIAMI FL 33137 |
| Jimmie Chatmon |
director, officer: Executive Vice President |
2125 BISCAYNE BLVD, MIAMI FL 33137 |
| Kevin Mikolashek |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
2125 BISCAYNE BLVD SUITE 253, MIAMI FL 33137 |
| David Edward Berg |
director |
2125 BISCAYNE BLVD., SUITE 253, MIAMI FL 33137 |
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