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LPTX (Leap Therapeutics) Predictability Rank


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What is Leap Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Leap Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Leap Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Leap Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Leap Therapeutics Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
47 Thorndike Street, Suite B1-1, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02141
Leap Therapeutics Inc is in developing targeted antibody therapies for cancer treatment, focusing on inhibiting tumor-promoting pathways, targeting cancer-specific cell surface molecules, and activating the immune system against cancer cells. The company's lead program, DKN-01, targets Dickkopf-related protein 1 (DKK1) and is in clinical trials for esophagogastric, gynecologic, and colorectal cancers. Their second program, FL-301, targets Claudin18.2-expressing cells. Additionally, the company has two preclinical antibody programs, FL-302 and FL-501, aimed at developing transformative cancer treatments. Operating as a single segment, the company's sole focus is on developing innovative drugs to address unmet needs in cancer therapy. .
Executives
Jason Baum officer: Chief Scientific Officer LEAP THERAPEUTICS, INC., 47 THORNDIKE STREET, SUITE B1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Patricia A. Martin director 316 BEECHWOOD FARM LANE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46260
Christian M Richard director 100 FEDERAL STREET, 19TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Richard Schilsky director LEAP THERAPEUTICS, INC., 47 THORNDIKE STREET, SUITE B1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Beigene, Ltd. 10 percent owner C/O MOURANT GOVERNANCE SERVICES (CAYMAN), 94 SOLARIS AVENUE, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Christine Granfield officer: VP, Head of Reg Affairs/Qual C/O LEAP THERAPEUTICS, 47 THORNDIKE STREET, SUITE B1-1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd 10 percent owner C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
John Mark O'mahony officer: Chief Manufacturing Officer C/O LEAP THERAPEUTICS, INC., 47 THORNDIKE STREET, SUITE B1-1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Cynthia Sirard officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O LEAP THERAPEUTICS, INC., 47 THORNDIKE STREET, SUITE B1-1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Joseph Edelman 10 percent owner C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Perceptive Advisors Llc 10 percent owner 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Christopher Mirabelli director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO,Pres,Chairman of the Board 55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 301, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Augustine Lawlor 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Operating Officer 55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 301, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Douglas E Onsi 10 percent owner, officer: CFO,Gen Counsel,Treas, Sec. C/O TOLERRX INC, 300 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Healthcare Ventures Ix, L.p. 10 percent owner 55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 102, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142