iGen Networks (iGen Networks) Predictability Rank

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What is iGen Networks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

iGen Networks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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iGen Networks (iGen Networks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » iGen Networks Corp (OTCPK:IGEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

31772 Casino Drive, Suite C, Lake Elsinore, CA, USA, 92530

Website

http://www.igen-networks.com

iGen Networks Corp is engaged in the development and marketing of software services for the automotive industry. It has one reportable segment being Vehicle Tracking and Recovery Solutions. The company works with wireless carriers, hardware suppliers and software developers to provide direct and secure access to information on the vehicle and the driver's behavior. The software services are delivered from the AWS Cloud to the consumer and their families over the wireless networks and accessed from any mobile or desktop device. The software services are marketed to automotive dealers, financial institutions, and direct-to-consumer through various commercial and consumer brands. The company's brands include Nimbo Tracking, CU Trak, and Medallion GPS PRO.

Executives

Neil Gene Chan	director, officer: CEO	1075 ST. DAVID STREET, VICTORIA A1 V8S 4Y7
Robert G Friedman	director, 10 percent owner	510 EAST 80 STREET, NEW YORK NY 10075
Sierra Abel Israel Sr	officer: VP/GM	28375 ROSTRATA AVE, LAKE ELSINORE CA 92532
Robert Nealon	director	119 NORTH HENRY STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Richard Allan Freeman	director, officer: COO	361 WEST 20TH AVE, VANCOUVER A1 V5Y 2C5
Richard Gilbertson	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	408 WEST PALM AIRE DRIVE, POMPANO BEACH FL 33069
Chris Shade	director	84283 - 5512 4TH STREET NW, CALGARY A0 T2K 1A9
Monty Ormsby	director, officer: President	5605 INDIGO BAY WAY, LAS VEGAS NV 89131
Michael Grudman	director, officer: CFO	104 - 838 W16TH AVE, VANCOUVER A1 V5Z 1T1