HF Financial (HF Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is HF Financial Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HF Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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HF Financial (HF Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » HF Financial Corp (NAS:HFFC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.homefederal.com

HF Financial Corp was incorporated under the laws of the State of Delaware in November 1991. The Company was formed for owning all of the outstanding stock of Home Federal Bank issued in the mutual to stock conversion of the Bank. The Company is regulated as a bank holding company by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The Bank provides full-service consumer and commercial business banking, including an array of financial products, to meet the needs of its market place. The Bank attracts deposits from the general public and uses such deposits, together with borrowings and other funds, to originate one-to-four family residential, commercial business, consumer, multi-family, commercial real estate, construction and agricultural loans. The Bank's consumer loan portfolio includes, among other things, automobile loans, home equity loans, loans secured by deposit accounts and student loans. The Bank also purchases agency residential mortgage-backed securities and invests in U.S. Government and agency obligations and other permissible investments. The Bank, through its wholly owned subsidiaries, offers annuities, mutual funds, life insurance and other financial products, and equipment leasing services. The Company's reportable segments are banking (including leasing activities) and other. The banking segment is conducted through the Bank and Mid America Capital and the other segment is composed of smaller non-reportable segments, the Company and intersegment eliminations. The Bank's primary market area includes communities located in eastern and central South Dakota, including the Sioux Falls metropolitan statistical area ("MSA"), and the cities of Mitchell, Aberdeen, Brookings, Watertown, and Yankton. The Bank has a banking center in Marshall, Minnesota, which serves customers located in southwestern Minnesota. It competes with other commercial banks, credit unions, savings and loan associations, mortgage banking firms, consumer finance companies, securities brokerage firms, insurance companies, money market funds and other mutual funds, as well as super-regional, national and international financial institutions.

Executives

John W Palmer	director	C/O SECURITY FINANCIAL BANCORP INC, 9321 WICKER AVE, ST JOHN IN 46373
Stephen M Bianchi	officer: President / CEO	225 S. MAIN AVENUE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57104
Christine E Hamilton	director	225 S MAIN AVE, P O BOX 5000, SIOUX FALLS SD 57117