GSE Systems (GSE Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is GSE Systems Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GSE Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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GSE Systems (GSE Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » GSE Systems Inc (NAS:GVP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6940 Columbia Gateway Dr., Suite 470, Columbia, MD, USA, 21046

Website

https://www.gses.com

GSE Systems Inc is a company engaged in providing engineering, staffing, and simulation software to clients in the power and process industries. It is also into providing interactive computer-based tutorials and simulation software for the refining, chemical, and petrochemical industries. It functions through two segments: Engineering segment and Workforce Solutions segment. Its geographical segments include the United States, Europe, and Asia, out of which the majority of the revenue is generated from the United States.

Executives

Dougherty Iii Thomas James	director	GSE SYSTEMS, INC, 6940 COLUMBIA GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 470, COLUMBIA MD 21046
Kathryn O'connor	director	GSE SYSTEMS, INC, 1332 LONDONTOWN BLVD SUITE 200, SYKESVILLE MD 21784
Corey William S. Jr.	director	C/O STEWART INFORMATION SERVICES CORP., 1360 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 100 MC-14-1, HOUSTON TX 77056
Bahram Meyssami	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O GSE SYSTEMS, INC., 1332 LON, SYKESVILLE MD 21784
Emmett Anthony Pepe	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1515 JUDD COURT, HERNDON VA 20170
Donald Horn	officer: President, GSE Engineering	GSE SYSTEMS INC, 6940 COLUMBIA GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 470, COLUMBIA MD 21046-3308
Daniel Warren Pugh	officer: Chief Legal and Risk Officer	C/O GSE SYSTEMS, INC., 1332 LONDONTOWN BLVD., SYKESVILLE MD 21784
Ravi Khanna	officer: SVP Professional Services	GSE SYSTEMS, INC., 1332 LONDONTOWN BLVD, SYKESVILLE MD 21784
Kyle Justin Loudermilk	director, officer: President & CEO	3525 WOODBINE STREET, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Brian Greene	officer: VP, GSE Workforce Solutions	GSE SYSTEMS INC, 1332 LONDONTOWN BLVD, SYKESVILLE MD 21784
Ngp Energy Technology Partners Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	1700 K STREET N.W., SUITE 750, WASHINGTON DC 20006
Energy Technology Partners, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1700 K STREET NW, SUITE 750, WASHINGTON DC 20006
Philip J Deutch	10 percent owner	PERSEUS 2000 LLC, 2099 PENNSYLVANIA AVUE NW STE 900, WASHINGTON DC 20006
Suresh Sundaram	director	C/O EXA CORPORATION, 55 NETWORK DRIVE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Polar Asset Management Partners Inc.	10 percent owner	16 YORK STREET SUITE 2900, TORONTO A6 M5J 0E6