Greencity Acquisition (Greencity Acquisition) Predictability Rank

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What is Greencity Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Greencity Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Greencity Acquisition (Greencity Acquisition) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Greencity Acquisition Corp (OTCPK:GRCYF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GRYUF:USA

Address

505 Eshan Road, Floor 6, Pudong New District, Shanghai, CHN, 200120

Website

Greencity Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.

Executives

Hudson Bay Capital Management Lp	10 percent owner	28 HAVEMEYER PLACE, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Sander Gerber	10 percent owner	C/O HUDSON BAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 28 HAVEMEYER PLACE, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Lawrence Feis	10 percent owner	190 EAST WALTON PLACE, UNIT 603, CHICAGO IL 60611
Feis Equities Llc	10 percent owner	20 NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 2115, CHICAGO IL 60606
Glazer Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Paul J Glazer	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH ST, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Lei Wang	director	2609 MONTE CRESTA DRIVE, BELMONT CA 94002
Cynthia Management Corp	10 percent owner	SUITE 807 TOWER 2 CENTURY LINK PLAZA, NO. 1196 CENTURY AVENUE, PUDONG DISTRICT F4 200000
Jianmin Yu	10 percent owner, officer: CFO	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Jinlong Liu	director, 10 percent owner	100 PARK AVENUE 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Chao Liu	director	100 PARK AVENUE 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Ming Zhang	officer: CEO	100 PARK AVENUE 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Yong Li	director	100 PARK AVENUE 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017