Goodrich Petroleum (Goodrich Petroleum) Predictability Rank

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What is Goodrich Petroleum Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Goodrich Petroleum Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Goodrich Petroleum (Goodrich Petroleum) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Goodrich Petroleum Corp (OTCPK:GDPCW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

801 Louisiana Street, Suite 700, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

http://www.goodrichpetroleum.com

Goodrich Petroleum Corp is an independent oil and gas producer in the United States. The company operates in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale region, with minor operations in the Eagle Ford and Haynesville shales. The vast majority of exploitation and development efforts on natural gas are carried out in the core of the Haynesville Shale in North Louisiana.

Executives

Jeffrey Serota	director	123 ROBERT S. KERR AVENUE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73120
Kristen Mcwatters	officer: Sr. Vice President, CFO & CAO	801 LOUISIANA, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77002
Edward J. Sondey	director	801 LOUISIANA, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77002
Kenneth Adam Leight	director	801 LOUISIANA, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77002
Thomas M Souers	director	801 LOUISIANA, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77002
Ronald F Coleman	director	4601 WESTWAY PARK BOULEVARD, HOUSTON TX 77041
Timothy D Leuliette	director	P.O. BOX 701482, PLYMOUTH MI 48170
Paloma Partners Vi Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	1100 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 5100, HOUSTON TX 77002
Encap Partners Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	9651 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Paloma Vi Merger Sub, Inc.	10 percent owner	1100 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 5100, HOUSTON TX 77002
Encap Energy Capital Fund Xi, L.p.	10 percent owner	9651 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Lsp Generation Iv, Llc	10 percent owner	1700 BROADWAY, FLOOR 35, NEW YORK X1 10019
Lsp Investment Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	1700 BROADWAY, FL. 35, NEW YORK NY 10019
Gen Iv Investment Opportunities, Llc	10 percent owner	1700 BROADWAY, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
J.p. Morgan Securities Llc	10 percent owner	383 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10179