Firstvings Financial Group (Firstvings Financial Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Firstvings Financial Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Firstvings Financial Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Firstvings Financial Group (Firstvings Financial Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Savings Financial Group Inc (NAS:FSFG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

702 North Shore Drive, Suite 300, Jeffersonville, IN, USA, 47130

Website

https://www.fsbbank.net

First Savings Financial Group Inc provides various banking services to individuals and business customers in southern Indiana. The bank accepts deposits from the general public & uses those funds, along with other borrowings, mainly to originate a residential mortgage, commercial mortgage, construction, commercial business, & consumer loans, and to a lesser extent, to invest in mortgage-backed securities and other securities. It conducts lending and deposit activities mainly with individuals and small businesses in its market area. The bank operates in three segments: core banking, which accounts for majority revenue; SBA lending; and mortgage banking.

Executives

Kent L. Parisien	officer: EVP, Area President	501 EAST LEWIS & CLARK PARKWAY, CLARKSVILLE IN 47129
Steven R Stemler	director	C/O FIRST SAVINGS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 501 EAST LEWIS AND CLARK PARKWAY, CLARKSVILLE IN 47129
Larry W Myers	director, officer: President & CEO	702 NORTH SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 300, JEFFERSONVILLE IN 47130
Anthony A Schoen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	501 EAST LEWIS & CLARK PARKWAY, CLARKSVILLE IN 47129
L. Chris Fordyce	other: Director of Subsidiary	FIRST SAVINGS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 501 EAST LEWIS AND CLARK PARKWAY, CLARKSVILLE IN 47129
Frank Czeschin	director	FIRST SAVINGS FINANCIAL GROUP INC., 501 EAST LEWIS AND CLARK PARKWAY, CLARKSVILLE IN 47129
James E. Valete	officer: EVP, Chf SBA Lndg Offc	702 NORTH SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 300, JEFFERSONVILLE IN 47130
James W Nelson	officer: EVP and CRO	HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INCORPORATED, HUNTINGTON CENTER, 41 S. HIGH STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43287
Brian A. Simon	officer: SVP, Dir of Mtg, Whsle Lndg	702 NORTH SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 300, JEFFERSONVILLE IN 47130
Jonathan E. Handmaker	officer: EVP of subsidiary	501 EAST LEWIS & CLARK PARKWAY, CLARKSVILLE IN 47129
David Z Rosen	officer: Treasurer of subsidiary	92 WALNUT STREET, LAWRENCEBURG IN 47025
Troy D. Hanke	director	702 NORTH SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 300, JEFFERSONVILLE IN 47130
Marie Haley	officer: EVP and Chief Retail Officer	501 EAST LEWIS AND CLARK PARKWAY, CLARKSVILLE IN 47129
Lenfield R. Basham	officer: EVP and CIO	501 EAST LEWIS & CLARK PARKWAY, CLARKSVILLE IN 47129
Lawson John P Jr	director, officer: Chief Operations Officer	501 EAST LEWIS AND CLARK PARKWAY, CLARKSVILLE IN 47129