Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Dendreon Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Dendreon's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Dendreon Corp is a Delaware corporation. The Company is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapeutics that improve cancer treatment options for patients. Its product portfolio includes active cellular immunotherapy and small molecule product candidates to treat a range of cancers. PROVENGE(r) (sipuleucel-T), is its first commercialized product licensed by the United States Food and Drug Administration, and is a first in class autologous cellular immunotherapy for the treatment of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, metastatic, castrate-resistant (hormone-refractory) prostate cancer. Prostate cancer is the most common non-skin cancer among men in the United States, with over one million men currently diagnosed with the disease, and the second cause of cancer deaths in men in the United States. The Company owns worldwide rights for PROVENGE. The Other potential product candidates we have under development include our investigational active cellular immunotherapy, DN24-02, which potentially may be used for the treatment of patients with bladder, breast, ovarian and other solid tumors expressing HER2/neu. In addition, the Company has developed an orally-available small molecule treatment targeting TRPM8 that could be applicable to multiple types of cancer. The Company currently depends on specialized vendor relationships that are not readily replaceable for some of the components for its active immunotherapy candidates. Products such as chemotherapeutics, androgen metabolism or androgen receptor antagonists, endothelin A receptor antagonists, antisense compounds, angiogenesis inhibitors and gene therapies for cancer are also under development by a number of companies and could potentially compete with PROVENGE and its other product candidates. The Company's competitors include major pharmaceutical companies. The Company is subject to a variety of federal, state and local regulations relating to the use, handling, storage and disposal of hazardous materials, including chemicals and radioactive and biological materials. The Company is also subject to regulation by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration ('OSHA'), and the Environmental Protection Agency ('EPA'), and to regulation under the Toxic Substances Control Act.
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