What is FinWise Bancorp Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
FinWise Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
FinWise Bancorp (FinWise Bancorp) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
756 East Winchester, Suite 100, Murray, UT, USA, 84107
FinWise Bancorp is an independent bank that provides a full range of banking services to individual and corporate customers. The bank's primary source of revenue is from loans including Small Business Administration, commercial, commercial real estate, residential real estate, and consumer.
Executives
| Javvis O Jacobson |
officer: CFO AND EXECUTIVE VP |
765 E WINCHESTER ST, SUITE 100, MURRAY UT 84107 |
| James N Giordano |
director |
208 HARRISTOWN ROAD, SUITE 101, GLEN ROCK NJ 07452 |
| Kent Landvatter |
director, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO |
765 E WINCHESTER ST, SUITE 100, MURRAY UT 84107 |
| Dawn M Cannon |
officer: COO AND EXECUTIVE VP |
765 E WINCHESTER ST, SUITE 100, MURRAY UT 84107 |
| Alan Weichselbaum |
director |
50 SEALY DRIVE, LAWRENCE NY 11559 |
| Michael Christopher Obrien |
officer: See Remarks |
756 EAST WINCHESTER, SUITE 100, MURRAY UT 84107 |
| David Tilis |
officer: CSO AND SENIOR VP |
43 NORTH VILLAGE AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, ROCKVILLE CENTRE NY 11570 |
| Gibson Thomas Elmer Jr |
director |
9122 INGRAM DRIVE, WEST JORDAN UT 84088 |
| Jeana Hutchings |
director |
136 E SOUTH TEMPLE, 2300, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111 |
| Howard I Reynolds |
director |
12464 SOUTH 1840 EAST, DRAPER UT 84020 |
| Gerald Edwin Cunningham |
director |
P.O. BOX 1061, DRAPER UT 84020 |
| Healey Russell Fred Jr |
director |
4014 SOUTH HIGHLAND DRIVE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84124 |
| James Noone |
officer: CCO AND EXECUTIVE VP |
765 E WINCHESTER ST, SUITE 100, MURRAY UT 84107 |
| Lisa Ann Nievaard |
director |
12634 S 265 W, DRAPER UT 84020 |
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