FAT Brands (FAT Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is FAT Brands Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FAT Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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FAT Brands (FAT Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » FAT Brands Inc (NAS:FAT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FATBB:USA FATBP.PFD:USA 5PN:Germany

Address

9720 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 500, Beverly Hills, CA, USA, 90212

Website

https://www.fatbrands.com

FAT Brands Inc is a multi-brand restaurant franchising company. It develops, markets, acquires and manages quick service, fast casual, casual dining and polished casual dining restaurant concepts around the world. The company operates as a franchisor of restaurants, where the company generally does not own or operate the restaurant locations but rather generates revenue by charging franchisees an initial franchise fee as well as ongoing royalties. For some of the company's brands, it also directly owns and operates restaurant locations. The primary sources of revenue are the sale of food and beverages at company restaurants and the collection of royalties, franchise fees and advertising revenue from sales of food and beverages at franchised restaurants.

Executives

Andrew Wiederhorn	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O WILSHIRE FINANCIAL SERVICES INC, 1776 SW MADISON STREET, PORTLAND OR 97205
John Stephen Allen	director	P.O. BOX 2732, GEARHART OR 97138
James G Ellis	director	C/O QUIKSILVER, INC., 15202 GRAHAM STREET, HUNTINGTON BEACH CA 92649
Fog Cutter Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	9720 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 500, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Matthew Green	director
Peter R Feinstein	director
John Cameron Metz	director	13153 FABERGE PLACE, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33418
Kenneth Kepp	director	27929 SW 95TH AVENUE, SUITE 1101, WILSONVILLE OR 97070
Mark Elenowitz	director	400 PROFESSIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 310, GAITHERSBURG MD 20879
Tyler Berchtold Child	director	P.O. BOX 254, ROSS CA 94957
Vidal Paba Maria Carmen	director	CARRER CAVALLERS NUMBER 56-58, 4TH FLOOR 1ST DOOR, BARCELONA U3 08034
Mason Alan Wiederhorn	director	9720 WILSHIRE BLVD., PH, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Lynne Leigh Collier	director	8523 FOREST HILLS BLVD, DALLAS TX 75218
John Squire Junger	director	16600 PARK LANE CIRCLE, LOS ANGELES CA 90049
Taylor Andrew Wiederhorn	officer: Chief Development Officer	9720 WILSHIRE BLVD,, SUITE 500, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212