Electro Scientific Industries (Electro Scientific Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Electro Scientific Industries Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Electro Scientific Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Electro Scientific Industries (Electro Scientific Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Electro Scientific Industries Inc (NAS:ESIO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.esi.com

Electro Scientific Industries Inc is a manufacturer of electronic components. The company operates through two segments: Component Processing and Micromachining. The Component Processing segment includes interconnect products, semiconductor products, and component products. The interconnect, semiconductor and component products are sold to manufacturers of electronic components and are used to drill, cut, trim, ablate and test and mark features for the functionality of the component. The Micromachining segment includes products that are sold to manufacturers of end devices across various industries and are used to drill, cut or mark features on a range of materials, generally on the casing or external surface of the end device.

Executives

Raymond A Link	director	C/O FORMFACTOR, INC., 7005 SOUTHFRONT ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Michael D Burger	officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO	250 TECHNOLOGY PARK, LAKE MARY FL 32746
Allen L. Muhich	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	250 TECHNOLOGY PARK, LAKE MARY FL 32746
Lynne J Camp	director	714 NW 914TH TERRACE, PORTLAND OR 97229
Paul R Oldham	officer: CFO, Sr. VP of Finance	1625 SHARP POINT DRIVE, FORT COLLINS CO 80525
John K Medica	director	C/O NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS CORPORATION, 11500 NORTH MOPAC EXPWY, BLDG C, AUSTIN TX 78759
Edward C Grady	director, officer: President & CEO
Richard J Faubert	director	14242 S CANYON DR, PHOENIX AZ 85048
Jon D Tompkins	director	17075 THORNMINT COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
D3 Family Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner	19605 NE 8TH STREET CAMAS WA 98607
Nierenberg Investment Management Co	director	19605 NE 8TH ST, CAMAS WA 98607
David Nierenberg	director, 10 percent owner	19605 NE 8TH STREET, CAMAS WA 98607
Nierenberg Investment Management Offshore Inc	10 percent owner	19605 NE 8TH STREET CAMAS WA 98607
D3 Family Canadian Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	19605 NE 8TH STREET, CAMAS WA 98607
D3 Offshore Fund Lp	10 percent owner	19605 NE 8TH ST CAMAS WA 98607