DallasNews (DallasNews) Predictability Rank

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What is DallasNews Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DallasNews Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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DallasNews (DallasNews) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » DallasNews Corp (NAS:DALN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

P. O. Box 224866, Dallas, TX, USA, 75222-4866

Website

https://www.dallasnews.com

DallasNews Corp is a local news and information publishing company in Texas with commercial printing, distribution, and direct mail capabilities, as well as a presence in emerging media and digital marketing.

Executives

Dunia A Shive	director	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Christine E Larkin	officer: VP/General Counsel	508 YOUNG ST., DALLAS TX 75202
John A Beckert	director	C/O A. H. BELO CORPORATION, P.O. BOX 224866, DALLAS TX 75222-4866
Mary K Murray	officer: SVP/CFO, Treas. & Asst. Sec'y	C/O A. H. BELO CORPORATION, 508 YOUNG STREET, DALLAS TX 75202
Grant Moise	officer: SVP/Bus Dev-Dallas MN	508 YOUNG STREET, DALLAS TX 75202
Robert W Decherd	director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO
Moroney James M Iii	officer: EVP/Publ & CEO Dallas News
Michael Joseph Ohara	officer: SVP/CIO	508 YOUNG ST., DALLAS TX 75202
Timothy Michael Storer	officer: President/DMV Portfolio	508 YOUNG STREET, DALLAS TX 75202
Julie Kaye Hoagland	officer: SVP/Chief People Officer	508 YOUNG STREET, DALLAS TX 75202
Dealey D Herndon	director	HERNDON, DEALEY D, P O BOX 655237, DALLAS TX 75265-5237
Leslie Nicole Purcell	officer: SVP/Chief Digital Officer	508 YOUNG STREET, DALLAS TX 75202
Michael J. Wilson	officer: Dallas Morning News Editor	508 YOUNG STREET, DALLAS TX 75202
Daniel J Blizzard	officer: Senior Vice President	400 SOUTH RECORD STREET, DALLAS TX 75202
Alison K Engel	officer: SVP/CFO and Treasurer	400 SOUTH RECORD STREET, DALLAS TX 75202