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Cytec Industries (Cytec Industries) Predictability Rank


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What is Cytec Industries Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Cytec Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cytec Industries Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cytec Industries (Cytec Industries) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Cytec Industries Inc was incorporated as an independent public company in Delaware in December 1993. It is a specialty materials and chemicals company. Its products serve a diverse range of end markets including aerospace and industrial materials, mining and plastics. Its segments include Aerospace Materials, Industrial Materials, In Process Separation, and Additive Technologies. Its Aerospace Materials segment is a provider of technologically advanced materials for aerospace markets. Its product lines are Advanced composites, Structural and film adhesives, and Carbon fibers. It markets Aerospace Materials products and services directly to its customers using sales and technical support team. It is a supplier for military fixed wing programs, such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and F-18 fighter jet programs, where advanced composites generally account for a higher percentage of structural weight. Advanced composites are exceptionally strong and lightweight materials (prepregs and resin infusion systems) it manufactures from high performance fibers (like carbon fiber) with epoxy, bismaleimide, phenolic, polyimide and other resins formulated or purchased by the Company. Structural and film adhesives are used for bonding and surfacing both metal and composite aircraft components. It also manufactures specialty adhesive forms for complex composites assemblies, such as honeycomb and sandwich structures and special surfacing films to provide aircraft lightning strike protection. It began construction on a new standard modulus carbon fiber line in South Carolina in early 2008. Its Industrial Materials segment provides Structural materials and Process materials. In Industrial Materials, it markets its products through a direct sales force for the structural materials and process materials product lines. Structural materials product line includes the development, manufacturing and supply of advanced composite materials for a diverse range of industries such as motorsports, automotive, defense, rail, tooling, recreation, alternative energy and other markets. Process materials product line includes the development, manufacture, and supply of vacuum bagging and other process materials to the composites industry and other markets, providing a wide range of materials and technical support to a growing number of international customers. Its In Process Separation segment provides Mining chemicals, and Phosphines. It markets In Process Separation chemicals through specialized sales and technical service staffs for each of its product lines. Mining chemicals product line is primarily used in applications to separate desired minerals from host ores. Phosphine specialties are utilized for a variety of applications. Its Additive Technologies segment provides Polymer additives, Specialty additives, and Formulated resins. It markets Additive Technologies chemicals through specialized sales and technical service staffs for each of its product lines. I
Executives
Carol P Lowe director 4311 BEULAH CHURCH ROAD, WEDDINGTON NC 28104
Barry C Johnson director C/O CYTEC INDUSTRIES INC, 5 GARRET MOUNTAIN PLAZA, WEST PATERSON NJ 07424
David P Hess director 390 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Anthony G Fernandes director 9700 HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 750, ROSEMONT IL 60018
Thomas W Rabaut director C/O CYTEC INDUSTRIES INC, 5 GARRET MOUNTAIN PLAZA, WEST PATERSON NJ 07424
William P Powell director C/O CYTEC INDUSTRIES INC, 5 GARRET MOUNTAIN PLAZA, WEST PATERSON NJ 07424
David Lilley director
Assche Benoit Van officer: President, CSS 10-1 BLANCHARDSTOWN CORPORATE PARK, BALLYCOOLIN, DUBLIN L2 15