Covenant Logistics Group (Covenant Logistics Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Covenant Logistics Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Covenant Logistics Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Covenant Logistics Group (Covenant Logistics Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Covenant Logistics Group Inc (NAS:CVLG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CV5:Germany

Address

400 Birmingham Highway, Chattanooga, TN, USA, 37419

Website

https://www.covenantlogistics.com

Covenant Logistics Group Inc together with its wholly-owned subsidiaries offers truckload transportation and freight brokerage services to customers throughout the continental United States. The company's reportable segments include Expedited, Dedicated Services, Managed Freight and Warehousing. Expedited segment provides truckload services to customers with high service freight and delivery standards. Dedicated segment provides customers with committed truckload capacity over contracted periods with the goal of three to five years in length. Managed Freight segment includes brokerage services and TMS. Warehousing segment provides day-to-day warehouse management services to customers who have chosen to outsource this function. Majority of revenue is generated from expedited segment.

Executives

Joey B Hogan	officer: Exec Vice President and CFO	400 BIRMINGHAM HIGHWAY, CHATTANOOGA TN 37419
Wesley Miller Welborn	director	6401 LEE HIGHWAY, STE B, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Benjamin Sr Carson	director	PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599
Samuel F Hough	officer: EVP - Expedited	400 BIRMINGHAM HIGHWAY, CHATTANOOGA TN 37419
Lynn Doster	officer: EVP - Dedicated & Warehousing	400 BIRMINGHAM HIGHWAY, CHATTANOOGA TN 37419
Paul Bunn	officer: President, COO, and Secretary	COVENANT TRANSPORTATION GROUP, INC., 400 BIRMINGHAM HIGHWAY, CHATTANOOGA TN 37419
Rachel Parker-hatchett	director	400 BIRMINGHAM HIGHWAY, CHATTANOOGA TN 37419
Herbert J Schmidt	director	1950 LAKE RIDGE DRIVE, THE VILLAGES FL 32162
Grant James S Iii	officer: EVP and CFO	400 BIRMINGHAM HIGHWAY, CHATTANOOGA TN 37419
Joey Ballard	officer: EVP, People and Safety	400 BIRMINGHAM HIGHWAY, CHATTANOOGA TN 37419
D Michael Kramer	director	P O BOX 868, EVANSVILLE IN 47705-0868
George S. Yates	officer: SVP - Brokerage	400 BIRMINGHAM HIGHWAY, CHATTANOOGA TN 37419
Tracy L. Rosser	director	400 BIRMINGHAM HIGHWAY, CHATTANOOGA TN 37419
Bradley A Moline	director	610 BROADWAY, IMPERIAL NE 69033
Robert E Bosworth	director	LIVINGSTON COMPANY & SOUTHPORT CAPITAL, ONE UNION SQUARE, SUITE 300, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402