CervoMed (CervoMed) Predictability Rank

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What is CervoMed Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CervoMed Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CervoMed (CervoMed) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » CervoMed Inc (NAS:CRVO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

20 Park Plaza, Suite 424, Boston, MA, USA, 02216

Website

https://www.diffusionpharma.com

CervoMed Inc Formerly Diffusion Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company. It is focused on extending the life expectancy of cancer patients by improving the effectiveness of current standard-of-care treatments, including radiation therapy and chemotherapy. The company's product candidate is trans sodium crocetinate (TSC), which is used for the treatment of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) and metastatic brain cancer. Geographically business activity of the firm functions through the region of the United States.

Executives

Frank Zavrl	director	C/O PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY INC., 10880 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 2150, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Sylvie Gregoire	director, 10 percent owner	940 WINTER STREET, C/O PERKINELMER, WALTHAM MA 02451
John William Tanner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O EIP PHARMA, INC., 20 PARK PLAZA, SUITE 424, BOSTON MA 02116
Kelly Blackburn	officer: VP, Clinical Development	C/O ATYR PHARMA, INC., 3545 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Marwan Sabbagh	director	C/O CORTEXYME, INC., 269 EAST GRAND AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
John J Alam	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and President	130 WAVERLY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jeffrey V. Poulton	director	300 THIRD STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Jill Davidson	director	300 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 101, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902
Raven Jaeger	officer: Chief Regulatory Officer	300 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 201, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902
Eric Francois	director	C/O SCYNEXIS, INC., 3501 C TRICENTER BOULEVARD, DURHAM NC 27713
Diana M Lanchoney	director	1317 CARLTON AVE, SUITE 200, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902
William Robert Elder	officer: GC & Secretary	1317 CARLTON AVENUE, SUITE 200, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902
Cobuzzi Robert Joseph Jr.	director	C/O DIFFUSION PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 1317 CARLTON AVENUE, SUITE 200, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902
Christopher D Galloway	officer: Chief Medical Officer	1317 CARLTON AVENUE, SUITE 200, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902
Jane H Hollingsworth	director	DIFFUSION PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 1317 CARLTON AVENUE, SUITE 200, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902