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Cohen (COHN) Predictability Rank


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What is Cohen Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cohen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cohen Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cohen's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Cohen (COHN) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Cohen & Co Inc (AMEX:COHN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SOS PHIL MEGL BTOG ABTS MIGI SAI ATIF SLNH OLKR MS GS SCHW ASX:MQG SHSE:600030 BSP:BPAC3 RJF TW LPLA SHSE:601066
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2929 Arch Street, Cira Centre, Suite 1703, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19104-2870
Website
https://www.cohenandcompany.com
Cohen & Co Inc is a United states company that delivers financial services in fixed income markets. It is focused on small-cap banking institutions and has grown to provide an expanding range of capital markets and asset management services. It has three business segments. The Capital Markets segment, which is the key revenue driver, consists of fixed income sales, trading, matched book repo financing, new issue placements in corporate and securitized products, and advisory services. The Asset Management segment manages assets within collateralized debt obligations, managed accounts, joint ventures, and investment funds. The Principal Investing segment is comprised of investments to earn return rather than to support trading, matched book repo, or other Capital Markets segment activities.
Executives
G Steven Dawson director CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2870
Douglas Listman officer: Chief Accounting Officer 2929 ARCH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2870
Daniel G Cohen director, 10 percent owner, officer: Vice Chairman and CE Europe 712 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Lester Raymond Brafman officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O INSTITUTIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, INC, 2929 ARCH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Pooler Joseph W. Jr. officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer 2929 ARCH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2870
Christopher Ricciardi director, other: Former10% Owner 51 SHELLBARK LANE, BRIARCLIFF MANOR NY 10510
Stephanie Ricciardi other: Former 10% Owner C/O MR. RICCIARDI COHEN & COMPANY INC., 135 EAST 57TH STREET, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Neil S Subin director 2336 S.E. OCEAN BOULEVARD, #400, STUART FL 34996
Thomas Costello director CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2870
James Mcentee director CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2870
Diana Louise Liberto director C/O INSTITUTIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, INC, CIRA CENTER, 2929 ARCH STREET, 17TH FL., PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Jack Dimaio director C/O DIMAIO AHMAD CAPITAL LLC, 245 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10167
Mead Park Capital Partners Llc 10 percent owner 126 EAST 56TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Edward E Cohen 10 percent owner RESOURCE AMERICA INC, 1845 WALNUT ST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Ebc 2013 Family Trust 10 percent owner 2929 ARCH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104