CIM Real Estate Finance Trust (CIM Real Estate Finance Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is CIM Real Estate Finance Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CIM Real Estate Finance Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CIM Real Estate Finance Trust (CIM Real Estate Finance Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » CIM Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (OTCPK:CMRF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2398 East Camelback Road, 4th Floor, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85016

Website

https://www.colecapital.com

CIM Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is a real estate investment trust. The company invests in commercial real estate investments consisting of necessity retail properties located throughout the United States. The company operates a diversified portfolio of core commercial real estate consisting of net leased properties located throughout the United States and short-duration senior secured loans and other credit investments.

Executives

Jason K Schreiber	director	263 NINTH AVENUE APARTMENT 9B, NEW YORK NY 10001
Krol Emily Vande	director	30003 N. 68TH STREET, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85266
Roger Snell	director	2325 E CAMELBACK RD, SUITE 1100, PHOENIX AZ 85016
Stephen O Evans	director	5825 EAST STARLIGHT WAY, PARADISE VALLEY AZ 85253
Gary Robert A Iv	director	1551 NORTH TUSTIN AVENUE, SUITE 200, SANTA ANA CA 92705
Calvin E Hollis	director	2325 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, 10TH FLOOR, PHOENIX AZ 85016
Marcus E Bromley	director
Howard A Silver	director	999 SOUTH SHADY GROVE ROAD, SUITE 600, MEMPHIS TN 38120
Elaine Y Wong	director	4700 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Avraham Shemesh	director	C/O CIM GROUP, LLC, 6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD. 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
W Brian Kretzmer	director	26110 ENTERPRISE WAY, STE 200, LAKE FOREST CA 92630
Richard S Ressler	director, officer: CEO & President	C/O J2 GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD, 5TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Smith Jeffrey Randall Jr	officer: See Remarks	COLE CAPITAL, 2325 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, SUITE 1100, PHOENIX AZ 85016
Nathan David Debacker	officer: See Remarks	2325 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, SUITE 1100, PHOENIX AZ 85016
Glenn J Rufrano	director	C/O NEW PLAN EXCEL REALTY TRUST, INC., 1120 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 1200, NEW YORK NY 10036

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