CDK Global (CDK Global) Predictability Rank

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What is CDK Global Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CDK Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CDK Global (CDK Global) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CDK Global Inc (NAS:CDK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1950 Hassell Road, Hoffman Estates, IL, USA, 60169

Website

https://www.cdkglobal.com

CDK Global Inc provides integrated information technology solutions to the automotive retail and adjacent industries in North America. The company's solutions connect people with technology by automating and integrating all parts of the dealership and buying process, including the acquisition, sale, financing, insuring, parts supply, repair, and maintenance of vehicles. It generates maximum revenue from subscriptions.

Executives

Lee J. Brunz	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O CDK GLOBAL, INC. 1950 HASSELL RD. HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169
Neil B Fairfield	officer: VP, Corporate Controller & CAO	200 N. MILWAUKEE AVENUE, VERNON HILLS IL 60061
Eric Guerin	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	1950 HASSELL ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169
Jennifer A. Williams	officer: VP, Corporate Controller & CAO	1950 HASSELL ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169-6308
Mahesh Shah	officer: Chief Product & Tech. Officer	1950 HASSELL ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169-6308
Scott W Herbers	officer: EVP, North America Sales	1950 HASSELL ROAD HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169-6308
Neil Packham	officer: President, CDK International	1950 HASSELL ROAD HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169-6308
Joseph A Tautges	officer: Executive Vice President	CDK GLOBAL, INC. 1950 HASSELL ROAD HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169
Brian M Krzanich	director, officer: CEO / President	1210 MACDONALD RANCH ROAD, HENDERSON NV 89012
Rajiv K Amar	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1950 HASSELL ROAD HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169-6308
Scott L. Mathews	officer: VP & President, Digital Mktg	C/O CDK GLOBAL, INC. 1950 HASSELL RD. HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169
Amy W. Byrne	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	1950 HASSELL ROAD HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169-6308
Brian P Macdonald	director	1735 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Frey Ronald L Jr	officer: Chief Global Strategy Officer	1950 HASSELL ROAD HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169-6308
Stephen A. Miles	director	C/O CDK GLOBAL, INC. 1950 HASSELL RD. HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60169