Consumers Bancorp (Consumers Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Consumers Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Consumers Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Consumers Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Consumers Bancorp (Consumers Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Consumers Bancorp Inc (OTCPK:CBKM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

614 East Lincoln Way, P.O. Box 256, Minerva, OH, USA, 44657

Website

https://www.consumers.bank

Consumers Bancorp Inc is engaged in the financial services sector. It is a bank holding company for Consumers National Bank and performs commercial and retail banking tasks. Its business involves attracting deposits from businesses and individual customers and using such deposits to originate a commercial, mortgage and consumer loans in the United States market. The company's business banking division provides checking, including business entree checking, business savings, loans and cash management services. Its personal banking services include checking, mortgage loans, loans and credit and savings, CDS and IRAS.

Executives

Lober Ralph J Ii	director, officer: CEO/President	9084 EMERALD ISLE ST NW, CANAL FULTON OH 44614
Frank L Paden	director	7465 JAGUAR DR, BOARDMAN OH 44512
Suzanne N Mikes	officer: VP, Chief Credit Officer	4028 TROON DR, UNIONTOWN OH 44685
Bradley Goris	director	3075 SOUTH UNION AVE, ALLIANCE OH 44601-5362
John W Parkinson	director	199 ORLANDO MANOR, WINTERSVILLE OH 43953
Kiko Richard T Jr	director	103 OVERWOOD RD, AKRON OH 44313
Derek G Williams	officer: SVP, Training & Sales Develop	1221 CENTURY HILL STREET, LOUISVILLE OH 44641-2720
Shawna L'italien	director	617 BRICKER FARMS LANE, SALEM OH 44460
Ann M Gano	director	2053 MAY VALLEY RD SW, NEW PHILADELPHIA OH 44663
Laurie L Mcclellan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN OF BOD	28 TEPEE DR, MINERVA OH 44644
Schmuck Harry W Jr	director	7200 RAVENNA AVE, LOUISVILLE OH 44641
Scott E Dodds	officer: EVP, Senior Loan Officer	2669 MT PLEASANT ST NE, NORTH CANTON OH 44721
John P/ Furey	director	8050 AVALON RD NW, MALVERN OH 44644
Kimberly K Chuckalovchak	officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer	10020 LINDEN RD NW, MINERVA OH 44657
Hillary A Hudak	officer: SVP, Chief People Officer	3037 KINGSTON CIR, SILVER LAKE OH 44224

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