Cascade Bancorp (Cascade Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Cascade Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cascade Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cascade Bancorp (Cascade Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Cascade Bancorp (NAS:CACB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.botc.com

Cascade Bancorp was formed in 1990 and is a publicly traded bank holding company. The Bancorp conducts its business activities through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Bank of the Cascades. The Bank is an Oregon state chartered bank which operates more 28 branches serving communities in Central, Southern and Northwest Oregon, as well as in the greater Boise/Treasure Valley, Idaho area. It offers commercial and retail banking services to its customers. It lends to small to medium-sized businesses, municipalities and public organizations, professional and consumer relationships. It also provides commercial real estate loans, real estate construction and development loans, commercial and industrial loans as well as consumer installment, line-of-credit, credit card, and home equity loans. It originates residential mortgage loans that are sold on the secondary market. The Bank provides consumer deposit services with a suite of cash management services. It also provides trust-related services to its clients. The Bank competes principally with other commercial banks, savings and loan associations, credit unions, mortgage companies, brokers, and other non-bank financial services providers. It is subject to a number of state and federal legislative regulations which include, among others, the statutory maximum legal lending rates, domestic monetary policies of the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Department of Treasury fiscal policy, and capital adequacy and liquidity constraints imposed by federal and state regulatory agencies.

Executives

Leonard Green & Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BLVD, STE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Daniel J Lee	officer: EVP/CCO	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
J Lamont Keen	director	1221 W IDAHO ST, BOISE ID 83702
Annette G Elg	director	1100 NW WALL STREET, BEND OR 97701
Green V Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Green Equity Investors V, L.p.	10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Green Equity Investors Side V, L.p.	10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Gei Capital V, Llc	10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Michael Connolly	director	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Dennis L Johnson	director	1221 W IDAHO ST, BOISE ID 83702
Patricia L Moss	director	1100 N.W. WALL STREET, P.O. BOX 369, BEND OR 97701
Lgp Management Inc	10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BLVD, STE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Terry E Zink	director, officer: Pres/CEO	38 FOUNTAIN SQUARE PLAZA, MD10AT76, CINCINNATI OH 45263
Donald B Marron	10 percent owner	51 WEST 52ND ST, 23RD FL, NEW YORK NY 10019
Judi Johansen	director	2786 GLENMORRIE DRIVE, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97034