Atlanticus Holdings (Atlanticus Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Atlanticus Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Atlanticus Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Atlanticus Holdings (Atlanticus Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Atlanticus Holdings Corp (NAS:ATLC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ATLCP.PFD:USA

Address

Five Concourse Parkway, Suite 300, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328

Website

https://www.atlanticus.com

Atlanticus Holdings Corp invests in the financial services industry. It provides various credit and related financial services and products to or associated with the financially underserved consumer credit market. The operating business segments are the Credit as a Service and the Auto Finance segment. It generates maximum revenue from the Credit as a Service segment.

Executives

Deal W Hudson	director	FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
Denise M Harrod	director	FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
James Dennis H Jr	director	FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
David G Hanna	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & Chairman of the Board	FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
William Mccamey	officer: CFO and Treasurer	FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
Mitchell Saunders	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
Thomas G Rosencrants	director	C/O ATLANTICUS HOLDINGS CORPORATION, FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
Mack F Mattingly	director	C/O ATLANTICUS HOLDINGS CORPORATION, FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
Jeffrey A. Howard	director, officer: President	FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
Joann G Jones	director	FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
Kimberly M Hanna	10 percent owner	FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
Sally R Hanna	10 percent owner	FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328
Richard W Gilbert	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ATLANTICUS HOLDINGS CORP, FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300 GA 30328
Jpmorgan Chase & Co	10 percent owner	383 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Hanna Frank J Iii	director, 10 percent owner	FIVE CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30328