Akero Therapeutics (Akero Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Akero Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Akero Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Akero Therapeutics (Akero Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Akero Therapeutics Inc (NAS:AKRO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0K4:Germany 0K4:Germany

Address

601 Gateway Boulevard, Suite 350, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.akerotx.com

Akero Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing transformative treatments for serious metabolic diseases with high unmet medical needs. Its focus is nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, or NASH, a disease without any approved therapies. The company's product candidate efruxifermin is an FGF21 analog with properties that has the potential to address the core processes underlying NASH pathogenesis.

Executives

Jonathan Young	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 170 HARBOR WAY 3RD FL, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Andrew Cheng	director, officer: President & CEO	170 HARBOR WAY, 3RD FLOOR, C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Catriona Yale	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS INC., 170 HARBOR WAY 3RD FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
William Richard White	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 170 HARBOR WAY 2ND FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Timothy Rolph	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 170 HARBOR WAY, 3RD FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
G. Walmsley Graham	director	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Tomas J. Heyman	director	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 170 HARBOR WAY 3RD FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jane Henderson	director	C/O ELEVEN BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 215 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Patrick Lamy	officer: See Remarks	AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 601 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Skorpios Trust	other: Former 10% owner	195 ARCH. MAKARIOS III AVE., NEOCLEOUS HOUSE, LIMASSOL G4 3030
Montrago Trustees Ltd	other: Former 10% owner	195 ARCH. MAKARIOS III AVE., NEOCLEOUS HOUSE, LIMASSOL G4 3030
Blue Horizon Enterprise Ltd	other: Former 10% owner	3076, SIR FRANCIS DRAKES HIGHWAY, ROAD TOWN, TORTOLA D8 VG1110
Ezbon International Ltd	other: Former 10% owner	3076, SIR FRANCIS DRAKES HIGHWAY, ROAD TOWN, TORTOLA D8 VG1110
Seth Loring Harrison	director	230 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2800, NEW YORK NY 10169
Chou Judy	director	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 601 GATEWAY BLVD, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 64080