AGBA Group Holding (AGBA Group Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is AGBA Group Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AGBA Group Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AGBA Group Holding (AGBA Group Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » AGBA Group Holding Ltd (NAS:AGBA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

D6D:Germany

Address

68 Johnston Road, AGBA Tower, Wan Chai, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.agba.com

AGBA Group Holding Ltd provides healthcare, wellness, financial advisory, and fintech services. The group is organized into four divisions: Platform, Distribution, Healthcare, and Fintech. The AGBA platform helps individual and corporate customers with better financial, medical, and healthcare service options. The AGBA is a unique omnichannel one-stop financial business solution platform that offers financial services, expands business opportunities, and enhances business productivity to licensed financial advisors, licensed brokers, and licensed financial institutions.

Executives

Yun Pun Wong	director	UNIT B, 11F, ON HING BUILDING, 1-9 ON HING TERRACE, CENTRAL HONG KONG F4 00000
Tag Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	TRUST TOWER, 68 JOHNSTON ROAD, WAN CHAI K3 000000
Wong Suet Fai Almond	director	TRUST TOWER, 68 JOHNSTON ROAD, WAN CHAI K3 000000
Wing Fai Ng	director, officer: Chairman (PEO) and ED	TRUST TOWER, 68 JOHNSTON ROAD, WAN CHAI K3 000000
Richard Kong	officer: Deputy CFO/Company Secretary	TRUST TOWER, 68 JOHNSTON ROAD, WAN CHAI K3 000000
Jeroen Nieuwkoop	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	TRUST TOWER, 68 JOHNSTON ROAD, WAN CHAI K3 000000
Shu Pei Huang Desmond	officer: Acting Group CFO (PFO)	TRUST TOWER, 68 JOHNSTON ROAD, WAN CHAI K3 000000
Mizuho Securities Usa Llc	10 percent owner	1271 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, FLOORS - 2,3,4,18,19, NEW YORK NY 10020
Glazer Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Paul J Glazer	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH ST, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Eric Sc Lam	director	ROOM 1108, 11TH FLOOR, BLOCK B, NEW MANDARIN PLZ, 14 SCIENCE MUSEUM RD, TSIMSHATSUI EAST, KOWLOON K3 00000
Gordon Kk Lee	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	ROOM 1108, 11TH FLOOR, BLOCK B, NEW MANDARIN PLZ, 14 SCIENCE MUSEUM RD, TSIMSHATSUI EAST, KOWLOON K3 100027
Vera Zl Tan	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	ROOM 1108, 11TH FLOOR, BLOCKB, NEW MADISON PLZ, 14 SCIENCE MUSEUM RD, TSIMSHATSUI EAST, KOWLOON K3 100027
Ng Thomas Kwok On	director	ROOM1108, 11FL, BLOCK B, NEW MANDARIN PL, 14 SCIENCE MUSEUM RD, TSIMSHATSUI EAST, KOWLOON K3 00000
Chan Brian Chunhg Yau	director	ROOM1108, 11FL, BLOCK B, NEW MANDARIN PL, 14 SCIENCE MUSEUM RD, TSIMSHATSUI EAST, KOWLOON K3 00000