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Ultrapar Participacoes (BSP:UGPA3) Beneish M-Score : -2.70 (As of Oct. 31, 2024)


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What is Ultrapar Participacoes Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.7 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Ultrapar Participacoes's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

BSP:UGPA3' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.92   Med: -2.61   Max: -1.89
Current: -2.7

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ultrapar Participacoes was -1.89. The lowest was -2.92. And the median was -2.61.


Ultrapar Participacoes Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Ultrapar Participacoes's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Ultrapar Participacoes Beneish M-Score Chart

Ultrapar Participacoes Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.70 -2.72 -2.58 -2.03 -2.74

Ultrapar Participacoes Quarterly Data
Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.59 -2.67 -2.74 -2.69 -2.70

Competitive Comparison of Ultrapar Participacoes's Beneish M-Score

For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Ultrapar Participacoes's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Ultrapar Participacoes's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Ultrapar Participacoes's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ultrapar Participacoes's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Ultrapar Participacoes Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ultrapar Participacoes for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.1155+0.528 * 0.698+0.404 * 1.2965+0.892 * 0.9501+0.115 * 0.9525
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.2286+4.679 * -0.045044-0.327 * 0.9685
=-2.70

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jun24) TTM:Last Year (Jun23) TTM:
Total Receivables was R$7,474 Mil.
Revenue was 32343.947 + 30395.902 + 33420.872 + 32483.536 = R$128,644 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2108.092 + 2061.212 + 3068.964 + 2864.278 = R$10,103 Mil.
Total Current Assets was R$15,746 Mil.
Total Assets was R$38,340 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was R$8,197 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was R$1,206 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was R$4,481 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was R$10,151 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was R$11,386 Mil.
Net Income was 437.915 + 431.474 + 1099 + 864.854 = R$2,833 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 27.378 + -2.672 + 136.795 + 11.467 = R$173 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1297.745 + -573.237 + 1761.346 + 1901.424 = R$4,387 Mil.
Total Receivables was R$7,052 Mil.
Revenue was 29592.54 + 30551.753 + 35957.308 + 39294.732 = R$135,396 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1672.271 + 1712.719 + 2450.831 + 1586.077 = R$7,422 Mil.
Total Current Assets was R$16,590 Mil.
Total Assets was R$34,278 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was R$7,761 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was R$1,080 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was R$3,839 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was R$8,440 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was R$11,441 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(7473.725 / 128644.257) / (7051.815 / 135396.333)
=0.058096 / 0.052083
=1.1155

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(7421.898 / 135396.333) / (10102.546 / 128644.257)
=0.054816 / 0.078531
=0.698

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (15746.103 + 8197.225) / 38340.17) / (1 - (16589.582 + 7760.865) / 34278.485)
=0.375503 / 0.289629
=1.2965

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=128644.257 / 135396.333
=0.9501

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1079.819 / (1079.819 + 7760.865)) / (1205.818 / (1205.818 + 8197.225))
=0.122142 / 0.128237
=0.9525

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(4480.9 / 128644.257) / (3838.575 / 135396.333)
=0.034832 / 0.028351
=1.2286

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((11385.646 + 10150.691) / 38340.17) / ((11440.673 + 8439.751) / 34278.485)
=0.561717 / 0.579968
=0.9685

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(2833.243 - 172.968 - 4387.278) / 38340.17
=-0.045044

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ultrapar Participacoes has a M-score of -2.70 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Ultrapar Participacoes Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Ultrapar Participacoes Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Brigadeiro Luis Antonio Avenue, 1343, Sao Paulo, SP, BRA, 01317-910
Ultrapar Participacoes SA engages in the investment of its own capital in services, commercial, industrial activities, through the subscription or acquisition of shares of other companies. The Company has three business segments: gas distribution, fuel distribution and storage. The gas distribution segment (Ultragaz) distributes LPG to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers, especially in the South, Southeast, and Northeast regions of Brazil. The fuel distribution segment operates the distribution and marketing of gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and lubricants and related activities throughout all the Brazilian territory. The storage segment operates liquid bulk terminals, especially in the Southeast and Northeast regions of Brazil.

Ultrapar Participacoes Headlines

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