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Ultrapar Participacoes (BSP:UGPA3) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : R$33.31 (As of Oct. 31, 2024)


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What is Ultrapar Participacoes Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-10-31), Ultrapar Participacoes's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is R$33.31. The stock price of Ultrapar Participacoes is R$20.82. Therefore, Ultrapar Participacoes's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.6.

The historical rank and industry rank for Ultrapar Participacoes's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

BSP:UGPA3' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.31   Med: 0.83   Max: 2.26
Current: 0.63

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Ultrapar Participacoes was 2.26. The lowest was 0.31. And the median was 0.83.

BSP:UGPA3's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
59.94% of 659 companies
in the Oil & Gas industry
Industry Median: 0.77 vs BSP:UGPA3: 0.63

Ultrapar Participacoes Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Ultrapar Participacoes's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Ultrapar Participacoes Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Ultrapar Participacoes Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 18.02 19.81 20.23 26.89 31.68

Ultrapar Participacoes Quarterly Data
Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 25.54 28.58 31.68 30.20 33.31

Competitive Comparison of Ultrapar Participacoes's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Ultrapar Participacoes's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Ultrapar Participacoes's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Ultrapar Participacoes's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ultrapar Participacoes's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Ultrapar Participacoes Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Ultrapar Participacoes's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = R$1,739.73.

Ultrapar Participacoes's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Jun24)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*1739.73056+14283.802*0.8)/1119.410
=33.31

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Ultrapar Participacoes  (BSP:UGPA3) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Ultrapar Participacoes's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=20.82/33.306879308672
=0.63

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Ultrapar Participacoes Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Ultrapar Participacoes Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Brigadeiro Luis Antonio Avenue, 1343, Sao Paulo, SP, BRA, 01317-910
Ultrapar Participacoes SA engages in the investment of its own capital in services, commercial, industrial activities, through the subscription or acquisition of shares of other companies. The Company has three business segments: gas distribution, fuel distribution and storage. The gas distribution segment (Ultragaz) distributes LPG to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers, especially in the South, Southeast, and Northeast regions of Brazil. The fuel distribution segment operates the distribution and marketing of gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and lubricants and related activities throughout all the Brazilian territory. The storage segment operates liquid bulk terminals, especially in the Southeast and Northeast regions of Brazil.

Ultrapar Participacoes Headlines

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