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Amgen (AMGN) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $185.48 (As of Oct. 31, 2024)


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What is Amgen Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-10-31), Amgen's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $185.48. The stock price of Amgen is $320.27. Therefore, Amgen's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.7.

The historical rank and industry rank for Amgen's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

AMGN' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.85   Med: 1.06   Max: 1.74
Current: 1.73

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Amgen was 1.74. The lowest was 0.85. And the median was 1.06.

AMGN's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
50.83% of 604 companies
in the Drug Manufacturers industry
Industry Median: 1.715 vs AMGN: 1.73

Amgen Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Amgen's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Amgen Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Amgen Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 215.58 224.19 210.49 212.47 206.62

Amgen Quarterly Data
Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 219.27 206.62 189.51 185.48 -

Competitive Comparison of Amgen's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Amgen's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Amgen's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Amgen's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Amgen's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Amgen Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Amgen's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $8,842.88.

Amgen's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Sep24)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(10.551003399274*8842.88+7527*0.8)/542.000
=183.25

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Amgen  (NAS:AMGN) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Amgen's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=320.27/183.25250357818
=1.75

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Amgen Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Amgen Business Description

Industry
Address
One Amgen Center Drive, Thousand Oaks, CA, USA, 91320-1799
Amgen is a leader in biotechnology-based human therapeutics. Flagship drugs include red blood cell boosters Epogen and Aranesp, immune system boosters Neupogen and Neulasta, and Enbrel and Otezla for inflammatory diseases. Amgen introduced its first cancer therapeutic, Vectibix, in 2006 and markets bone-strengthening drug Prolia/Xgeva (approved 2010) and Evenity (2019). The acquisition of Onyx bolstered the firm's therapeutic oncology portfolio with Kyprolis. Recent launches include Repatha (cholesterol-lowering), Aimovig (migraine), Lumakras (lung cancer), and Tezspire (asthma). The 2023 Horizon acquisition brings several rare-disease drugs, including thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza. Amgen also has a growing biosimilar portfolio.
Executives
Nancy A. Grygiel officer: SVP & CCO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Jonathan P Graham officer: SVP, Gen. Counsel & Secy. 2099 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, 12TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20006
Matthew C. Busch officer: VP, Finance & CAO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Murdo Gordon officer: EVP Global Commercial Ops C/O BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY, 345 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Rachna Khosla officer: SVP, Business Development ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
R Sanders Williams director DUKE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE, TRENT DRIVE, DURHAM NC 27706
Robert Eckert director MATTEL, INC., 333 CONTINENTAL BLVD, M1-1518, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Michael V Drake director ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Derek Miller officer: SVP, Human Resources ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Omar Ishrak director 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Ronald D Sugar director 10877 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1650, LOS ANGELES CA 900274
Linda H. Louie officer: VP, Finance & CAO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Amy E Miles director
David Piacquad officer: SVP, Business Development ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
Peter H. Griffith officer: EVP & CFO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320