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Amgen (AMGN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : $282.52 (As of Oct. 31, 2024)


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What is Amgen Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-10-31), Amgen's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $282.52.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Amgen's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Amgen is -13.36%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Amgen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

AMGN' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.4   Med: 0.55   Max: 1.14
Current: 1.13

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Amgen was 1.14. The lowest was 0.40. And the median was 0.55.

AMGN's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
53.64% of 151 companies
in the Drug Manufacturers industry
Industry Median: 1.06 vs AMGN: 1.13

Amgen Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Amgen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Amgen Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Amgen Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 436.96 533.53 463.42 321.29 308.21

Amgen Quarterly Data
Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 300.44 308.21 282.98 282.52 -

Competitive Comparison of Amgen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Amgen's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Amgen's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Amgen's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Amgen's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Amgen Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.28%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 9.20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Amgen's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 9.20%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 9.20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $18.600.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Amgen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.092)/(1+0.11) = 0.98378378378378
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=18.600*15.1893
=282.52

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(282.52-320.27)/282.52
=-13.36 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Amgen  (NAS:AMGN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Amgen Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Amgen's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Amgen Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Amgen Inc (NAS:AMGN) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Address
One Amgen Center Drive, Thousand Oaks, CA, USA, 91320-1799
Amgen is a leader in biotechnology-based human therapeutics. Flagship drugs include red blood cell boosters Epogen and Aranesp, immune system boosters Neupogen and Neulasta, and Enbrel and Otezla for inflammatory diseases. Amgen introduced its first cancer therapeutic, Vectibix, in 2006 and markets bone-strengthening drug Prolia/Xgeva (approved 2010) and Evenity (2019). The acquisition of Onyx bolstered the firm's therapeutic oncology portfolio with Kyprolis. Recent launches include Repatha (cholesterol-lowering), Aimovig (migraine), Lumakras (lung cancer), and Tezspire (asthma). The 2023 Horizon acquisition brings several rare-disease drugs, including thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza. Amgen also has a growing biosimilar portfolio.
Executives
Nancy A. Grygiel officer: SVP & CCO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Jonathan P Graham officer: SVP, Gen. Counsel & Secy. 2099 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, 12TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20006
Matthew C. Busch officer: VP, Finance & CAO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Murdo Gordon officer: EVP Global Commercial Ops C/O BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY, 345 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Rachna Khosla officer: SVP, Business Development ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
R Sanders Williams director DUKE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE, TRENT DRIVE, DURHAM NC 27706
Robert Eckert director MATTEL, INC., 333 CONTINENTAL BLVD, M1-1518, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Michael V Drake director ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Derek Miller officer: SVP, Human Resources ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Omar Ishrak director 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Ronald D Sugar director 10877 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1650, LOS ANGELES CA 900274
Linda H. Louie officer: VP, Finance & CAO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Amy E Miles director
David Piacquad officer: SVP, Business Development ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
Peter H. Griffith officer: EVP & CFO ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320