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ORCL (Oracle) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : $77.28 (As of Oct. 31, 2024)


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What is Oracle Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-10-31), Oracle's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $77.28.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Oracle's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Oracle is -117.18%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Oracle's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ORCL' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.36   Med: 0.72   Max: 2.26
Current: 2.17

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Oracle was 2.26. The lowest was 0.36. And the median was 0.72.

ORCL's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
84.88% of 324 companies
in the Software industry
Industry Median: 0.87 vs ORCL: 2.17

Oracle Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Oracle's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Oracle Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Oracle Annual Data
Trend May15 May16 May17 May18 May19 May20 May21 May22 May23 May24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 78.09 80.62 73.14 75.64 74.38

Oracle Quarterly Data
Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21 Nov21 Feb22 May22 Aug22 Nov22 Feb23 May23 Aug23 Nov23 Feb24 May24 Aug24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 71.85 73.62 70.19 74.38 84.00

Competitive Comparison of Oracle's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the Software - Infrastructure subindustry, Oracle's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Oracle's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Oracle's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Oracle's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Oracle Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.28%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 8.50%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Oracle's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 8.50%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 8.50%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $5.328.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Oracle's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.085)/(1+0.11) = 0.97747747747748
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=5.328*14.5043
=77.28

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(77.28-167.84)/77.28
=-117.18 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Oracle  (NYSE:ORCL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Oracle Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Oracle's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Oracle Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Address
2300 Oracle Way, Austin, TX, USA, 78741
Oracle provides database technology and enterprise resource planning, or ERP, software to enterprises around the world. Founded in 1977, Oracle pioneered the first commercial SQL-based relational database management system. Today, Oracle has 430,000 customers in 175 countries, supported by its base of 136,000 employees.
Executives
Maria Smith officer: EVP, Chief Accounting Officer C/O DELPHI ASSET MANAGEMENT CORP, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Leon E Panetta director 3290 WEST BAYSHORE RD, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Lawrence Joseph Ellison director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O DELPHI ASSET MGMT CORPORATION, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Edward Screven officer: Chief Corporate Architect C/O DELPHI ASSET MANAGEMENT CORP, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Jeffrey Berg director C/O DELPHI ASSET MGMT. CORP, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Michael J Boskin director C/O RIPPLEWOOD HOLDINGS LLC, ONE ROCKERFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10020
George H Conrades director 500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, FIFTH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Safra Catz director, officer: President C/O DELPHI ASSET MGMT CORPORATION, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Jeffrey Henley director, officer: Executive Vice Chairman C/O DELPHI ASSET MGMT. CORP, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Naomi O Seligman director ONE DIAMOND HILL RD, MURRAY HILL NJ 07974
Rona Alison Fairhead director C/O INTERACTIVE DATA CORPORATION, 32 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Stuart Levey officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer C/O DELPHI ASSET MANAGEMENT CORP, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, SUITE 200, RENO NV 89511
Renee Jo James director 2111 NE 25TH AVE, JF1-41, HILLSBORO OR 97124
Awo Ablo director C/O DELPHI ASSET MANAGEMENT, 5525 KIETZKE LANE, #200, RENO NV 89511
Charles W Moorman director DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION, 550 SOUTH TRYON STREET - DEC45A, CHARLOTTE NC 28202