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As of today (2024-05-23), Open Lending's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $1.27.
Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
Open Lending's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Open Lending is -402.76%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Open Lending's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
The historical data trend for Open Lending's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Open Lending Annual Data | |||||||||||||||
Trend | Dec18 | Dec19 | Dec20 | Dec21 | Dec22 | Dec23 | |||||||||
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | - | - | - | - | - |
Open Lending Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Jun19 | Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | Mar24 | |
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | - | - | - | - | - |
For the Credit Services subindustry, Open Lending's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Credit Services industry and Financial Services sector, Open Lending's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Open Lending's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.49%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Open Lending's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
5 years was -1.70%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $0.110.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Open Lending's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | = | EPS without NRI | * | {[(1+g1)/(1+d) | + | (1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10] |
+ | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10 | * | [(1+g2)/(1+d) | + | (1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]} |
set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | = | EPS without NRI | * | {[x | + | x^2 | + | ... | + | x^10] | + | x^10 | * | [y | + | y^2 | + | ... | + | y^10]} |
= | EPS without NRI | * | [x | * | (1-x^10) | / | (1-x) | + | x^10 | * | y | * | (1-y^10) | / | (1-y)] | |||||
= | 0.110 | * | 11.5406 | |||||||||||||||||
= | 1.27 |
Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) | = | (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | - | Current Price) | / | Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) |
= | (1.27 | - | 6.385) | / | 1.27 | |
= | -402.76 % |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Open Lending (NAS:LPRO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings powerYou can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Open Lending's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
John Joseph Flynn | director, officer: See Remarks | C/O OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, 1501 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Shawna Kelley Shelor | officer: Chief People Officer | C/O OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, 1501 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Thomas K Hegge | director | C/O OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, 1501 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Shubhi Suryaji Rao | director | OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, BARTON OAKS ONE 901 S MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Matthew Stark | officer: EVP and General Counsel | C/O OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, 1501 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Matthew Roe | officer: Chief Revenue Officer | C/O OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, 1501 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Thinh Nguyen | officer: Chief Information Officer | C/O OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, 1501 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Simona Fillarini | officer: Chief Human Resources Officer | C/O OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, 1501 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Cecilia Camarillo | officer: Chief Accounting Officer | C/O OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, 1501 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Sarah Lackey | officer: Chief Technology Officer | C/O OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, 1501 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Keith Jezek | director, officer: Chief Executive Officer | C/O OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, 1501 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Charles D Jehl | officer: Chief Financial Officer | C/O OPEN LENDING CORPORATION, 1501 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Ross M. Jessup | director, officer: See Remarks | BARTON OAKS ONE, 901 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, BLDG 1 STE 510, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
Bregal Sagemount I, L.p. | 10 percent owner | SECOND FLOOR, WINDWARD HOUSE, LA ROUTE DE LA LIBERATION, ST. HELIER Y9 JE2 3BQ |
Blair J. Greenberg | director | C/O BREGAL INVESTEMENTS, INC., SECOND FLOOR, WINDWARD HOUSE, LA ROUTE D, ST. HELIER CHANNEL ISLANDS Y9 JE2 3BQ |
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