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Merchants Bancshares (Merchants Bancshares) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $22.54 (As of May. 05, 2024)


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What is Merchants Bancshares Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-05), Merchants Bancshares's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $22.54.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Merchants Bancshares's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Merchants Bancshares is -120.94%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Merchants Bancshares's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

MBVT's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Banks industry.
Industry Median: 0.675
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Merchants Bancshares Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Merchants Bancshares's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Merchants Bancshares Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Merchants Bancshares Annual Data
Trend Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Merchants Bancshares Quarterly Data
Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Merchants Bancshares's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Merchants Bancshares's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Merchants Bancshares's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Merchants Bancshares's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Merchants Bancshares's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Merchants Bancshares Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.50%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Merchants Bancshares's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $1.953.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Merchants Bancshares's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.953*11.5406
=22.54

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (22.54 - 49.80) / 22.54
= -120.94 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Merchants Bancshares  (NAS:MBVT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Merchants Bancshares Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Merchants Bancshares (Merchants Bancshares) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Merchants Bancshares Inc is a bank holding company organized under Vermont law in 1983. Merchants Bank, the Company's primary subsidiary, is a Vermont commercial bank with 32 full-service banking offices located throughout the state of Vermont. The Company, through its subsidiary, offers a full range of deposit, loan, cash management, and trust services to meet the financial needs of individual consumers, businesses and municipalities at 32 full-service banking offices throughout the state of Vermont. Its trust division offers investment management, financial planning and trustee services. The Company competes in Vermont for deposit and loan business not only with other commercial and savings banks, and savings and loan associations, but also with credit unions and other non-bank financial providers. It is subject to extensive regulation and supervision, including, in many cases, regulation that limits the type and scope of its activities.
Executives
Jeffrey L Davis director 275 KENNEDY DRIVE, SOUTH BURLINGTON VT 05403
Pecor Raymond C Iii director 1 KING STREET DOCK, BURLINGTON VT 05401
Richard M Donovan officer: Interim PAO, PFO and Treasurer C/O FIRST SEACOAST BANCORP, 633 CENTRAL AVENUE, DOVER NH 03820
Bruce M Lisman director C/O MERCHANTS BANK, 275 KENNEDY DR, S. BURLINGTON VT 05403
Eric Andrew Segal officer: Interim PAO, PFO and Treasurer 6489 DEERFIELD DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938
Thomas J. Meshako officer: Treasurer and CFO MERCHANTS BANK, P.O. BOX 1009, BURLINGTON VT 05402
John A Kane director C/O MERCHANTS BANCSHARES, INC., 275 KENNEDY DRIVE, SOUTH BURLINGTON VT 05403
F Sheldon Prentice officer: Senior Vice President C/O NBT BANCORP, 52 BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Charles A Davis director 1 CAPE MAY ST, 1 CAPE MAY ST, HARRISON NJ 07029

Merchants Bancshares (Merchants Bancshares) Headlines