Kansas City Southern (Kansas City Southern) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $10.59 (As of May. 06, 2024)

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What is Kansas City Southern Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-06), Kansas City Southern's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $10.59.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Kansas City Southern's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Kansas City Southern is -2,672.33%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Kansas City Southern's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

KSU' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0 Med: 0 Max: 9.66
Current: 9.66

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Kansas City Southern was 9.66. The lowest was 0.00. And the median was 0.00.

KSU's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked
in the Transportation industry.
Industry Median: 0.86 vs KSU: 9.66

Kansas City Southern Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Kansas City Southern's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Kansas City Southern Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Kansas City Southern Annual Data

Trend

Dec11

Dec12

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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18.70

19.51

21.84

26.46

Kansas City Southern Quarterly Data
	Dec16	Mar17	Jun17	Sep17	Dec17	Mar18	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															25.81	26.46	26.27	28.34	30.40

Competitive Comparison of Kansas City Southern's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Railroads subindustry, Kansas City Southern's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Kansas City Southern's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Kansas City Southern's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Kansas City Southern's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Kansas City Southern Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.48%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Kansas City Southern's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 4.30%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $0.918.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Kansas City Southern's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

0.918

11.5406

10.59

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(10.59	-	293.59)	/	10.59
	=	-2,672.33 %

Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Kansas City Southern Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Kansas City Southern's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Kansas City Southern (Kansas City Southern) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

427 West 12th Street, Kansas City, MO, USA, 64105

Website

https://www.kcsouthern.com

Kansas City Southern, the smallest Class I railroad, derives about half of its $2.6 billion revenue on 3,400 miles of track in the Central and Southern United States. Remaining sales are produced by operating concessions on 3,300 miles of rail in Mexico and 47 miles of track adjacent to the Panama Canal. KCS' freight includes industrial and forest products (around 21% of total revenue), chemicals and petroleum (26%), agriculture and minerals (18%), intermodal (13%), energy (9%), and autos (9%); other revenue stems from switching, demurrage, and the like.

Executives

Warren K Erdman	officer: Executive Vice President
Lora S Cheatum	officer: Sr. VP - Human Resources	KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN PO BOX 219335 KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Suzanne M Grafton	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	427 W 12TH STREET KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Del Cueto Cuevas Oscar Augusto	officer: President & Exec Rep of Sub	427 W 12TH STREET KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Michael W Upchurch	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, PO BOX 219335, KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Patrick J Ottensmeyer	officer: President & CEO	PO BOX 219335, KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Adam J Godderz	officer: SVP Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec	427 W 12TH STREET KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Brian D. Hancock	officer: EVP & Chief Innovation Officer	KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, PO BOX 219335, KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Michael J. Naatz	officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer	10990 ROE AVE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Thomas A Mcdonnell	director	C/O KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, 427 W 12TH STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Garza Santos David F	director	AV. INDUSTRIALES DEL PONIENTE NO. 2300 SANTA CATARINA, N.L. O5 66350
Robert J Druten	director	6503 SENECA ROAD, MISSION HILLS KS 66208
Jeffrey M Songer	officer: EVP & COO	KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN PO BOX 219335 KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Janet H Kennedy	director	KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, PO BOX 219335, KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Lydia I Beebe	director	13403 NORTHWEST FREEWAY, HOUSTON TX 77040