Beam (FRA:BJM) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : €17.69 (As of May. 17, 2024)

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What is Beam Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-17), Beam's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is €17.69.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Beam's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Beam is -238.50%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Beam's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:BJM's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry.
Industry Median: 1
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Beam Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Beam's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Beam Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Beam Annual Data

Trend

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Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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Beam Quarterly Data
	Mar09	Jun09	Sep09	Dec09	Mar10	Jun10	Sep10	Dec10	Mar11	Jun11	Sep11	Dec11	Mar12	Jun12	Sep12	Dec12	Mar13	Jun13	Sep13	Dec13
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Beam's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries subindustry, Beam's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Beam's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Beverages - Alcoholic Industry

For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Beam's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Beam's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Beam Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.42%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Beam's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = €1.5327.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Beam's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

1.5327

11.5406

17.69

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(17.69	-	59.88)	/	17.69
	=	-238.50 %

Beam (FRA:BJM) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Beam Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Beam (FRA:BJM) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Alcoholic » Beam Inc (FRA:BJM) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.beamglobal.com

Beam Inc., is incorporated under the laws of Delaware in 1985. On May 30, 1997, the Company's name was changed from American Brands, Inc. to Fortune Brands, Inc. Following the spin-off on October 3, 2011, the Company became a standalone Spirits Company under the name Beam Inc. It is a premium spirits company that makes and sells branded distilled spirits products in major markets. The Company's three reportable segments are the geographic regions of North America, EMEA and APSA. Each segment is engaged in the manufacture and sale of distilled spirits products. Its principal products include bourbon whiskey, Scotch whisky, Canadian whisky, tequila, cognac, rum, cordials, and ready-to-drink pre-mixed cocktails. The Company's portfolio consists of brands it identifies as Power Brands, Rising Stars, Local Jewels and Value Creators. The Power Brands are the core brand equities, with its reach in premium categories and large annual sales volume. Rising Stars are smaller premium brands in priority markets. Brands identified as Local Jewels act as Power Brands in local markets. Value Creators include a variety of brands competing across multiple categories. The principal markets for its spirits products are the United States, Australia, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Canada, and continues to invest in emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Central Europe, Asia, and other geographies. The Company operates its business on the basis of geographical regions, consisting of North America, Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Asia-Pacific/South America. Its peak season for business is the fourth calendar quarter due to holiday buying. Raw materials for the production, storage and aging of distilled products are corn and other grains for whiskies and other spirits, agave for tequila, molasses for rum, grapes for cognac and fortified wines, new or used oak barrels, and plastic and glass for bottles. These materials are generally readily available from a number of sources, except that new oak barrels are available from only a few sources. The Company uses different business models to market and distribute its products in different regions of the world. In the U.S., it sells products either to wholesale distributors for resale to retail outlets or, in those states that control alcohol sales, to state governments who then sell them to retail customers and consumers. It competes on the basis of product quality, brand image, innovation, price, and service in response to consumer preferences. The production, storage, transportation, distribution and sale of its products are subject to regulation by federal, state, local, and foreign authorities.

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