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LOW (Lowe's) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : $111.25 (As of Jul24)


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What is Lowe's Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Jul24, Lowe's's earnings power value is $111.25. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -135.35

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Lowe's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Lowe's's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Lowe's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

Lowe's Annual Data
Trend Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 43.85 64.11 77.94 84.58 99.46

Lowe's Quarterly Data
Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23 Apr23 Jul23 Oct23 Jan24 Apr24 Jul24
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 95.14 97.55 99.46 106.36 111.25

Competitive Comparison of Lowe's's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Home Improvement Retail subindustry, Lowe's's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Lowe's's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Lowe's's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Lowe's's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Lowe's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Lowe's's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 89,529
DDA 1,815
Operating Margin % 11.33
SGA * 25% 4,411
Tax Rate % 27.69
Maintenance Capex 1,841
Cash and Cash Equivalents 4,360
Short-Term Debt 1,842
Long-Term Debt 38,397
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 570

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 11.33%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $89,529 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 11.33%, Average Adjusted SGA = 4,411,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 89,529 * 11.33% +4,411 = $14555.603652 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 27.69%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $14555.603652 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 14555.603652 * ( 1 - 27.69% ) = $10525.739224907 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 1,815 * 0.5 * 27.69% = $251.195078 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 10525.739224907 + 251.195078 = $10776.934302907 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Lowe's's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $1,841 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Lowe's's current cash and cash equivalent = $4,360 Mil.
Lowe's's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 38,397 + 1,842 = $40239 Mil.
Lowe's's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 570 Mil.

Lowe's's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jul24 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 10776.934302907 - 1,841)/ 9%+4,360-40239 )/570
=111.25

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 111.25193572919-261.83 )/111.25193572919
= -135.35%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Lowe's  (NYSE:LOW) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Lowe's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Lowe's's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Lowe's Business Description

Address
1000 Lowes Boulevard, Mooresville, NC, USA, 28117
Lowe's is the second-largest home improvement retailer in the world, operating more than 1,700 stores in the United States, after the 2023 divestiture of its Canadian locations (RONA, Lowe's Canada, Réno-Dépôt, and Dick's Lumber). The firm's stores offer products and services for home decorating, maintenance, repair, and remodeling, with maintenance and repair accounting for two thirds of products sold. Lowe's targets retail do-it-yourself (around 75% of sales) and do-it-for-me customers as well as commercial and professional business clients (around 25% of sales). We estimate Lowe's captures a high-single-digit share of the domestic home improvement market, based on US Census data and management's market size estimates.
Executives
Griggs Dan Clayton Jr officer: Vice President, CAO 1000 LOWES BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Brandon J Sink officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Seemantini Godbole officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Janice Dupre Little officer: EVP Human Resources 1000 LOWES BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Joseph Michael Mcfarland officer: EVP, Stores 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Quonta D Vance officer: EVP, Pro & Home Services 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Donald Frieson officer: EVP, Supply Chain 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
William P Boltz officer: EVP, Merchandising 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Juliette Williams Pryor officer: EVP, CLO & Corp. Sec. 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Ross W Mccanless officer: SR VP Gen Counsel & Secretary
Scott H Baxter director 400 NORTH ELM STREET, GREENSBORO NC 27401
Taylor Colleen director C/O BILL.COM HOLDINGS, INC., 1800 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Stone West Mary E director C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861
Daniel J Heinrich director CLOROX CO, 1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
David H Batchelder director 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117