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LOW (Lowe's) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 1.29% (As of Oct. 31, 2024)


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What is Lowe's Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Lowe's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.29%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Lowe's's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Home Improvement Retail subindustry, Lowe's's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Lowe's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Lowe's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Lowe's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Lowe's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-4.34

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=1.29%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Lowe's  (NYSE:LOW) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Lowe's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Lowe's Business Description

Address
1000 Lowes Boulevard, Mooresville, NC, USA, 28117
Lowe's is the second-largest home improvement retailer in the world, operating more than 1,700 stores in the United States, after the 2023 divestiture of its Canadian locations (RONA, Lowe's Canada, Réno-Dépôt, and Dick's Lumber). The firm's stores offer products and services for home decorating, maintenance, repair, and remodeling, with maintenance and repair accounting for two thirds of products sold. Lowe's targets retail do-it-yourself (around 75% of sales) and do-it-for-me customers as well as commercial and professional business clients (around 25% of sales). We estimate Lowe's captures a high-single-digit share of the domestic home improvement market, based on US Census data and management's market size estimates.
Executives
Griggs Dan Clayton Jr officer: Vice President, CAO 1000 LOWES BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Brandon J Sink officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Seemantini Godbole officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Janice Dupre Little officer: EVP Human Resources 1000 LOWES BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Joseph Michael Mcfarland officer: EVP, Stores 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Quonta D Vance officer: EVP, Pro & Home Services 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Donald Frieson officer: EVP, Supply Chain 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
William P Boltz officer: EVP, Merchandising 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Juliette Williams Pryor officer: EVP, CLO & Corp. Sec. 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Ross W Mccanless officer: SR VP Gen Counsel & Secretary
Scott H Baxter director 400 NORTH ELM STREET, GREENSBORO NC 27401
Taylor Colleen director C/O BILL.COM HOLDINGS, INC., 1800 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Stone West Mary E director C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861
Daniel J Heinrich director CLOROX CO, 1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
David H Batchelder director 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117