Verint Systems (Verint Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Verint Systems Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Verint Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Verint Systems (Verint Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Verint Systems Inc (NAS:VRNT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VTY:Germany

Address

175 Broadhollow Road, Suite 100, Melville, NY, USA, 11747

Website

https://www.verint.com

Verint Systems Inc with its subsidiaries helps brands provide Boundless Customer Engagement. The company's solutions help iconic brands close the gap created when it lacks the resources required to deliver experiences that fulfill customer expectations. The operating business segments are Customer Engagement. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Grant A Highlander	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VERINT SYSTEMS INC., 175 BROADHOLLOW ROAD, SUITE 100, MELVILLE NY 11747
William Kurtz	director	NOVELLUS SYSTEMS, INC., 4000 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Elan Moriah	officer: President, Contact Center Div.
Dan Bodner	director, officer: President & CEO Verint Systems
Peter Fante	officer: General Counsel
Richard N Nottenburg	director	1303 EAST ALGONQUIN ROAD, SCHAUMBURG IL 60196
Yvette H Smith	director	175 BROADHOLLOW ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Douglas Robinson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VERINT SYSTEMS INC., 330 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
John R Egan	director	176 SOUTH ST., HOPKINTON MA 01748
Kristen Robinson	director	2101 WEBSTER STREET #1650, OAKLAND CA 94612
French R Reid Jr	director	C/O INTERGRAPH CORP, 288 DUNLOP BLVD, HUNTSVILLE AL 35824
Linda M. Crawford	director	3365 CLAY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94118
Apax Guernsey (holdco) Pcc Ltd	10 percent owner	THIRD FLOOR, ROYAL BANK PLACE, 1 GLATEGNY ESPLANADE, ST. PETER PORT, GUERNSEY X0 GY1 2HJ
Valor Buyer Lp	10 percent owner	C/O APAX PARTNERS, LP, 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 53RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Apax X Gp Co. Ltd	10 percent owner	THIRD FLOOR, ROYAL BANK PLACE, 1 GLATEGNY ESPLANADE, ST. PETER PORT Y7 GY1 2HJ