What is Uranium Energy Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Uranium Energy Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Uranium Energy (Uranium Energy) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
500 North Shoreline Boulevard, Suite 800N, Corpus Christi, TX, USA, 78401
Uranium Energy Corp is engaged in uranium mining and related activities. The company is working towards fueling the global demand for carbon-free nuclear energy, a key solution to climate change, and energy source for the low-carbon future. UEC is a pure-play uranium company and is advancing its next generation of low-cost, environmentally friendly, in-situ recovery (ISR) mining uranium projects. It has two extraction-ready ISR hub and spoke platforms in South Texas and Wyoming. UEC also has seven U.S. ISR uranium projects with all of their major permits in place, with additional diversified holdings of uranium assets across the U.S., Canada and Paraguay.
Executives
| Pat Obara |
officer: Interim Chief Financial Office |
1111 WEST HASTINGS STREET, SUITE 320, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 2J3 |
| Ballesta Moya Gloria L |
director |
CII 142 #6-69, TORRE 10-101, BOGOTA F8 110121 |
| Volpe Vincent Della |
director |
32 EVERGREEN DRIVE, LINCOLN PARK NJ 07032 |
| David Kong |
director |
7440 AFTON DRIVE, RICHMOND A1 V7A 1A3 |
| Amir Adnani |
director, officer: President and CEO |
1111 WEST HASTINGS STREET, SUITE 320, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 2J3 |
| Scott Melbye |
officer: Executive Vice President |
618 CLIFFGATE LANE, CASTLE ROCK CO 80108 |
| Spencer Abraham |
director |
600 14TH STREET, NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20005 |
| Trecia M Canty |
director |
1 SYLVAN WAY, 2ND FLOOR, C/O PBF ENERGY INC., PARSIPPANY NJ 07054 |
| Donna Wichers |
officer: VP of Wyoming Operations |
109 TAILGATE LANE, HAMILTON MT 59840 |
| Pacific Road Capital Management G.p. Ltd |
10 percent owner |
89 NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY E9 KY1-9007 |
| Jian Hua Zhang |
officer: CONTROLLER |
UNIT 32, 10489 DELSOM CRESCENT, DELTA A1 V4C 0B9 |
| Ganpat Mani |
director |
1249 SARAH CT, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80126 |
| Kurrus Andrew William Iii |
officer: VP Resource Development |
2722 WIND ROCK DRIVE, CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78410 |
| Powell Iii Fred Pasco |
officer: VP of Marketing and Sales |
375 BEACH ROAD, #204, JUPITER FL 33469 |
| Mark Katsumata |
director |
14447 BLACKBURN CRESCENT, WHITE ROCK A1 V4B 3A3 |
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