Tilly's (Tilly's) Predictability Rank

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What is Tilly's Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tilly's Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tilly's (Tilly's) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Tilly's Inc (NYSE:TLYS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10 Whatney, Irvine, CA, USA, 92618

Website

https://www.tillys.com

Tilly's Inc works as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men, young women, boys, and girls. It offers an unparalleled selection of relevant brands, styles, colors, sizes, and price points. It delivers branded fashion, and core styles for tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses. It also provides backpacks, hats, sunglasses, headphones, handbags, watches, and jewelry. The company markets its products under the brand names of Vans, RVCA, Adidas, Nike SB, and Hurley among others. It operates its stores in malls, lifestyle centers, power centers, community centers, outlet centers, street-front locations, and also through e-commerce.

Executives

Pleasant Lake Onshore Feeder Fund Lp	10 percent owner	100 CARR 115 UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677
Seth R Johnson	director
Janet Kerr	director	50 CASTILIAN DR, GOLETA CA 93117
Michael Henry	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Laura Janney	officer: SEE REMARKS	C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Robert Simon Goodwin	officer: See Remarks	C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Jonathon David Kosoff	officer: Chief Digital Officer	C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Hezy Shaked	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER	C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Pleasant Lake Partners Llc	10 percent owner	100 CARR 115 UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677
Fund 1 Investments, Llc	10 percent owner	100 CARR 115, UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677
Edmond Thomas	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Bernard Zeichner	director	C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Teresa Luna Aragones	director	C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Erin Melissa Chin	director	C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Tricia D Smith	officer: EVP CMO	C/O URBAN OUTFITTERS INC, 5000 SOUTH BROAD STREET, PHILADELPHIA X1 19112