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Stewart Information Services (Stewart Information Services) Predictability Rank


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What is Stewart Information Services Predictability Rank?

2 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Stewart Information Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Stewart Information Services Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Stewart Information Services (Stewart Information Services) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Stewart Information Services Corp (NYSE:STC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HMN PLMR SKWD LMND HCI SAFT ROOT HGTY PRA MCY PGR CB TSE:8766 TRV ALL HKSE:01339 TSX:IFC HKSE:02328 HIG TSE:8725
Traded in Other Exchanges
SIU:Germany
Address
1360 Post Oak Boulevard, Suite 100, Houston, TX, USA, 77056
Website
https://www.stewart.com
Stewart Information Services Corp is a customer-focused, title insurance and real estate services company offering products and services to home buyers and sellers, mortgage lenders and servicers, attorneys, and home builders. It has three operating segments; Title insurance and related services include the functions of searching, examining, closing, and insuring the condition of the title to real property. It also includes home and personal insurance services, Real estate solutions segment supports the real estate mortgage industry by providing appraisal management services, online notarization and closing solutions, credit, and real estate information services, search and valuation services, and Corporate and Other segment is comprised of the parent holding company.
Executives
Helen Vaid director 600 WEST CHICAGO AVE., STE 400, CHICAGO IL 60654
Frederick H Eppinger director THE HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC., 440 LINCOLN ST, WORCESTER MA 01653
Bradley C Allen Jr director AMERISAFE INC, 2301 HIGHWAY 190 WEST, DERIDDER LA 70634
Elizabeth Giddens officer: Chief Legal Officer; Secretary 10000 WEHRLE DRIVE, CLARENCE NY 14031
Hamm John Earl Jr. officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer 1360 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77056
Steven Mark Lessack officer: Group President 1980 POST OAK BLVD., #800, HOUSTON TX 77056
Matthew Morris director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 1905 SHARP PL, HOUSTON TX 77019
Corey William S. Jr. director C/O STEWART INFORMATION SERVICES CORP., 1360 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 100 MC-14-1, HOUSTON TX 77056
Deborah Jane Matz director C/O STEWART INFORMATION SERVICES CORP., 1360 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 100 MC-14-1, HOUSTON TX 77056
Emily Kain officer: Chief Human Resource Officer C/O STEWART INFORMATION SERVICES CORP., 1360 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 100, MC-14-1, HOUSTON TX 77056
Glenn C Christenson director 2411 W SAHARA AVENUE, LAS VEGAS NV 89102
James M Chadwick director C/O IMPERIAL HOLDINGS, INC., 701 PARK OF COMMERCE BLVD., #301, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Tara Smith officer: Group President STEWART INFORMATION SERVICES CORP., 1980 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 710, HOUSTON TX 77056
Clifford Press director 152 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Robert Clarke director 711 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 2900, HOUSTON TX 77002-2781