Paramount Group (Paramount Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Paramount Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Paramount Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Paramount Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Paramount Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Paramount Group (Paramount Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Paramount Group Inc (NYSE:PGRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6PM:Germany

Address

1633 Broadway, Suite 1801, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.pgre.com

Paramount Group Inc is a real estate investment trust engaged in owning, operating, managing, acquiring, and redeveloping high-quality, Class A office properties in select central business district ("CBD") submarkets of New York City and San Francisco. The company operates in two geographical segments New York and San Francisco. Paramount Group derives nearly all of its revenue in the form of rental income from leasing its offices to tenants. The company's New York City assets generate the majority of its total revenue.

Executives

Albert P. Behler	director, officer: Chairman, CEO and President	PARAMOUNT GROUP, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, SUITE 1801, NEW YORK NY 10019
Gage R. Johnson	officer: SVP, GC and Secretary	PARAMOUNT GROUP, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10018
Thomas Armbrust	director	WERNER OTTO STRASSE 1-7, D-22179 HAMBURG 2M D-22179
Martin Bussmann	director	C/O PARAMOUNT GROUP, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, SUITE 1801, NEW YORK NY 10019
Paula Sutter	director	969 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, OAKLAND CA 94607
Hitoshi Saito	director	PARAMOUNT GROUP, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, SUITE 1801, NEW YORK NY 10019
Ermelinda Berberi	officer: See Remarks	1633 BROADWAY, SUITE 1801, NEW YORK NY 10019
Gregory S Wright	director	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Katharina Otto-bernstein	director, 10 percent owner	C/O KG CURA VERMOGENSVERWALTUNG G.M.B.H., WANDSBEKER STR. 3-7, HAMBURG 2M 22179
Alexander Otto	10 percent owner	C/O KG CURA VERMOGENSVERWALTUNG G.M.B.H., WANDSBEKER STR. 3-7, HAMBURG 2M 22179
Maren Otto	10 percent owner	WERNER-OTTO-STR. 1-7, HAMBURG 2M D-22179
Dyer Colin	director	JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED, 200 EAST RANDOLPH DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
David Zobel	officer: See Remarks	144 E. 84TH STREET #6D, NEW YORK NY 10028
Mark R Patterson	director	40 MINNISINK ROAD, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Brindley Peter R.c.	officer: EVP, Leasing	1633 BROADWAY, SUITE 1801, NEW YORK NY 10019