OneMain Holdings (OneMain Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is OneMain Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

OneMain Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

OneMain Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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OneMain Holdings (OneMain Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » OneMain Holdings Inc (NYSE:OMF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0S1:Germany

Address

601 N.W. Second Street, Evansville, IN, USA, 47708

Website

https://www.omf.com

OneMain Holdings is engaged in nonprime consumer finance companies in the United States and one of only a few companies in the consumer installment lending industry. It formed after a transaction brought together two branch-based consumer finance companies with complementary strategies and locations. Its services include providing personal loan products, offering credit and noncredit insurance, servicing loans, pursuing strategic acquisitions and dispositions of assets and businesses, and on occasion, establishing joint ventures or forming strategic alliances. The company's one reportable segment is consumer and insurance. In addition to hundreds of branches, the company also has a significant online business. The main source of revenue is net interest income.

Executives

Rajive Chadha	officer: Chief Operating Officer & EVP	C/O ONEMAIN HOLDINGS, INC., 601 N.W. SECOND STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Douglas H. Shulman	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ONEMAIN HOLDINGS, INC., 601 N.W. SECOND STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Toos Daruvala	director	12 SYCAMORE ROAD, SCARSDALE NY 10583
Philip Bronner	director	C/O ONEMAIN HOLDINGS, INC., 601 N.W. SECOND STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Uniform Investco Sub L.p.	other: See Remarks	C/O VARDE PARTNERS, 901 MARQUETTE AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 3300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Apollo Management Holdings Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Phyllis R Caldwell	director	AMERICAN CAPITAL, LTD., 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 12TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
George G Hicks	other: See Remarks	901 MARQUETTE AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 3300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Jay N. Levine	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ONEMAIN HOLDINGS, INC., 601 N.W. SECOND STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Lisa Green Hall	director	C/O ONEMAIN HOLDINGS, INC., 601 N.W. SECOND STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Micah R. Conrad	officer: EVP and CFO	C/O ONEMAIN HOLDINGS, INC., 601 N.W. SECOND STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Richard A Smith	director	175 PARK AVENUE, MADISON NJ 07940
Varde Investment Partners Ugp, Llc	other: See Remarks	C/O VARDE PARTNERS, 901 MARQUETTE AVENUE, SUITE 3300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Varde Skyway Fund Ugp, Llc	other: See Remarks	C/O VARDE PARTNERS, 901 MARQUETTE AVENUE, SUITE 3300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Varde Credit Partners Ugp, Llc	other: See Remarks	C/O VARDE PARTNERS, 901 MARQUETTE AVENUE, SUITE 3300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402