What is National Western Life Group Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
National Western Life Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
National Western Life Group (National Western Life Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10801 N. Mopac Expy Building 3, Austin, TX, USA, 78759
National Western Life Group Inc is a global insurance company that provides insurance products for the savings, protection, and retirement needs of policyholders. The company's product portfolio includes individual whole life, universal life and term insurance plans, and annuities. The company is organized into four operating business segments based on product types and geographic marketing areas: Domestic life insurance, International life insurance, Annuities, and Acquired businesses. The annuities segment contributes roughly half of the company's revenue, and most of the company's revenue is earned in the United States.
Executives
| E J Pederson |
director |
850 EAST ANDERSON LANE, AUSTIN TX 78752 |
| Ross R Moody |
director, officer: President & Interim CEO |
850 E. ANDERSON LANE, AUSTIN TX 78752 |
| David S Boone |
director |
AMERICAN CARESOURCE HOLDINGS, INC., 5429 LYNDON B. JOHNSON FREEWAY, #100, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| Thomas A Blackwell |
director |
850 E. ANDERSON LANE, AUSTIN TX 78752 |
| Rey Jr Perez |
officer: Sr VP - CLO & Secretary |
850 E. ANDERSON LANE, AUSTIN TX 78752 |
| Gina Byrne Miller |
other: NWLIC SVP - CLO & Secretary |
10801 N. MOPAC EXPY., BLDG. 3, AUSTIN TX 78759 |
| Allison L Lounsbury |
other: NWLIC - VP Controller |
10801 N. MOPAC EXPY., BLDG. 3, AUSTIN TX 78759 |
| Van De Berg Stephen M |
other: NWLIC - SVP Chief Actuary CRO |
10801 N. MOPAC EXPY, BLDG 3, AUSTIN TX 78759 |
| Chad J Tope |
other: NWLIC - EVP CMO |
10801 N. MOPAC EXPY, BLDG 3, AUSTIN TX 78759 |
| Natalie U Anderson |
other: NWLIC - VP Head of Investments |
10801 N. MOPAC EXPY., BLDG. 3, AUSTIN TX 78759 |
| Robert L Moody |
10 percent owner |
850 EAST ANDERSON LANE, AUSTIN TX 78752 |
| Robert L. Moody Revocable Trust |
10 percent owner |
C/O MOODY NATIONAL BANK, 2302 POSTOFFICE ST., GALVESTON TX 77550 |
| Gregory J Owen |
other: NWLIC - SVP CIO |
10801 N. MOPAC EXPY BLDG 3, AUSTIN TX 78759 |
| Russell S. Moody |
director |
850 E. ANDERSON LANE, AUSTIN TX 78752 |
| E Douglas Mcleod |
director |
850 EAST ANDERSON LANE, AUSTIN TX 78752 |
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