New Jersey Resources (New Jersey Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is New Jersey Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

New Jersey Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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New Jersey Resources (New Jersey Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » New Jersey Resources Corp (NYSE:NJR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NJ1:Germany

Address

1415 Wyckoff Road, Wall, NJ, USA, 07719

Website

https://www.njresources.com

New Jersey Resources is an energy services holding company with regulated and nonregulated operations. Its regulated utility, New Jersey Natural Gas, delivers natural gas to more than 575,000 customers in the state. NJR's nonregulated businesses include solar investments primarily in New Jersey and investments in several large midstream natural gas projects.

Executives

Patrick J. Migliaccio	officer: Senior VP and CFO	1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
Peter C Harvey	director	C/O NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
Stephen D Westhoven	officer: Senior V.P., Subsidiary	1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
Stephen Skrocki	officer: Corporate Controller and PAO	C/O NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
Lori Delgiudice	officer: SVP, Human Resources	C/O NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
Michael A O'sullivan	director	C/O NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
Roberto Bel	officer: SVP and CFO	C/O NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
Degraffenreidt James H Jr	director	1100 H ST NW, WASHINGTON DC 20080
Richard Reich	officer: SVP, Gen Counsel and Corp Sec	C/O NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
Timothy F. Shea	officer: Vice President, Subsidiary	C/O NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
Howard M William Jr	director	C/O NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
M Susan Hardwick	director	C/O AMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC., 1 WATER STREET, CAMDEN NJ 08102-1658
Donald L Correll	director	C/O INTERCHANGE FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP, PARK 80 W PLAZA TWO, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Amy Cradic	officer: SVP & COO Non-Utility Business	C/O NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
Craig A Lynch	officer: SVP, Subsidiary	C/O NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719