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Mach Natural Resources LP (Mach Natural Resources LP) Predictability Rank


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What is Mach Natural Resources LP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mach Natural Resources LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Mach Natural Resources LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Mach Natural Resources LP (Mach Natural Resources LP) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TALO STR ESTE HPK KRP HHRS NEXT VTLE DMLP CRGY COP HKSE:00883 EOG TSX:CNQ PXD OXY MIC:NVTK HES ASX:WDS DVN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
14201 Wireless Way, Suite 300, Oklahoma, OK, USA, 73134
Website
https://www.machresources.com
Mach Natural Resources LP is an independent upstream oil and gas company engaged in the acquisition, development and production of oil, natural gas and NGL reserves in the Anadarko Basin region of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas and the panhandle of Texas.
Executives
Frank A Keating director, other: See Remarks 6100 N WESTERN AVENUE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73118
Giesinger Edgar R. Jr. director, other: See Remarks 1915 SANDGATE FALLS, HOUSTON TX 77062
Tom L. Ward director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks, other: See Remarks C/O MACH NATURAL RESOURCES, 14201 WIRELESS WAY, SUITE 300, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73134
Kevin R. White officer: See Remarks, other: See Remarks C/O MACH NATURAL RESOURCES, 14201 WIRELESS WAY, SUITE 300, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73134
William Wallace Mcmullen director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks 1201 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 3308, HOUSTON TX 77002
Bayou City Energy Management Llc 10 percent owner 1201 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 3308, HOUSTON TX 77002
Reineke Daniel T Jr. officer: See Remarks, other: See Remarks C/O MACH NATURAL RESOURCES, 14201 WIRELESS WAY, SUITE 300, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73134
Michael E Reel officer: See Remarks, other: See Remarks C/O MACH NATURAL RESOURCES, 14201 WIRELESS WAY, SUITE 300, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73134
Stephen C Perich director, other: See Remarks C/O MACH NATURAL RESOURCES, 14201 WIRELESS WAY, SUITE 300, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73134
Bce-mach Aggregator Llc 10 percent owner 14201 WIRELESS WAY, SUITE 300, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73134