Marcus & Millichap (Marcus & Millichap) Predictability Rank

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What is Marcus & Millichap Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Marcus & Millichap Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Marcus & Millichap (Marcus & Millichap) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Marcus & Millichap Inc (NYSE:MMI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

M6M:Germany

Address

23975 Park Sorrento, Suite 400, Calabasas, CA, USA, 91302

Website

https://www.marcusmillichap.com

Marcus & Millichap Inc is a leading national brokerage firm specializing in commercial real estate investment sales, financing, research, and advisory services. The company offers three primary services to its clients: commercial real estate investment brokerage, financing, and ancillary services, including other research, advisory, and consulting services. The company generates revenues by collecting fees on the sale and financing of commercial properties. These fees consist of commissions collected upon the sale of a property and fees collected from the placement of loans.

Executives

Richard D. Matricaria	officer: EVP & COO - Western Division	C/O MARCUS & MILLICHAP, INC., 23975 PARK SORRENTO, CALABASAS CA 91302
Gregory A. Laberge	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O MARCUS & MILLICHAP, INC., 23975 PARK SORRENTO, SUITE 400, CALABASAS CA 91302
Don C. Watters	director	C/O MARCUS & MILLICHAP, INC., 23975 PARK SORRENTO, SUITE 400, CALABASAS CA 91302
John David Parker	officer: EVP & COO - Eastern Division	C/O MARCUS & MILLICHAP, INC., 23975 PARK SORRENTO, SUITE 400, CALABASAS CA 91302
Hessam Nadji	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O MARCUS & MILLICHAP, INC., 23975 PARK SORRENTO, SUITE 400, CALABASAS CA 91302
English Dixon Collete	director	C/O MARCUS & MILLICHAP, INC., 23975 PARK SORRENTO, SUITE 400, CALABASAS CA 91302
George M Marcus	director	1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Phoenix Investments Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	777 S. CALIFORNIA AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Martin E. Louie	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MARCUS & MILLICHAP, INC., 23975 PARK SORRENTO, SUITE 400, CALABASAS CA 91302
Steven F. Degennaro	officer: EVP and CFO	C/O MARCUS & MILLICHAP, INC., 23975 PARK SORRENTO, CALABASAS CA 91302
Lauralee Martin	director	JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED, 200 E RANDOLPH DR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Mitchell R Labar	officer: Executive VP and COO	C/O MARCUS & MILLICHAP, INC., 23975 PARK SORRENTO, CALABASAS CA 91302
George T Shaheen	director
William E. Hughes	officer: SVP Marcus & Millichap Capital	C/O MARCUS & MILLICHAP, INC., 23975 PARK SORRENTO, SUITE 400, CALABASAS CA 91302
Kurt Henry Schwarz	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O MARCUS & MILLICHAP, INC., 23975 PARK SORRENTO, SUITE 400, CALABASAS CA 91302