What is MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
51 Madison Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10010
MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The Fund's investment objective is to seek a high level of total return with an emphasis on current income. It invests predominantly in income-producing equity securities issued by infrastructure companies, including common stock, preferred stock, convertible securities, and rights or warrants to buy common stocks. The company intends to focus on three infrastructure megatrends: decarbonization, digital transformation, and asset modernization while making its investments.
Executives
| Jeremy Anagnos |
other: Portfolio Manager |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 600, RADNOR PA 19087 |
| Jacques P Perold |
director |
51 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Joseph P Smith |
other: Portfolio Manager |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA RD SUITE 600, RADNOR PA 19087 |
| Naim Abou-jaoude |
other: CEO, NY LIFE INVEST MGMENT LLC |
200 ALDERSGATE STREET, C/O CANDRIAM, NORTH ENTRANCE, LONDON X0 EC1A4HD |
| Alain M Karaoglan |
other: Chairman & Interim CEO |
230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| Richard S Trutanic |
director |
51 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Kevin M Gleason |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
30 HUDSON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302 |
| Daniel Ryan Foley |
other: Portfolio Manager |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 600, RADNOR PA 19087 |
| Kirk C Lehneis |
officer: President |
51 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Hinds Howard |
other: Portfolio Manager |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 600, RADNOR PA 19087 |
| Cbre Investment Management Listed Real Assets Llc |
other: Subadviser |
555 EAST LANCASTER AVENUE, SUITE 120, RADNOR PA 19087 |
| Alan R Latshaw |
director |
51 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Yie-hsin Hung |
director |
30 HUDSON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302 |
| Scott T Harrington |
officer: Vice President-Administration |
169 LACKAWANNA AVENUE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054 |
| Susan B Kerley |
director |
51 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
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