What is Veradigm Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Veradigm Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Veradigm (Veradigm) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
222 Merchandise Mart Plaza, Suite 2024, Chicago, IL, USA, 60654
Veradigm Inc is a healthcare technology company that drives value through its various combination of platforms, data, expertise, connectivity, and scale. It delivers a combination of point-of-care clinical and financial solutions. The Veradigm Network features a dynamic community of solutions and partners providing insights, technology, and data-driven solutions, all working together to transform healthcare insightfully.
Executives
| Shih Yin Ho |
director |
222 MERCHANDISE MART, SUITE 2024, CHICAGO IL 60654 |
| Susan Rodriguez |
director |
C/O ARDELYX, INC., 34175 ARDENWOOD BLVD, SUITE 200, FREMONT CA 94555 |
| Richard J. Poulton |
officer: CFO |
3646 WESTFIELD LANE, GLENVIEW IL 60026 |
| Tejal Vakharia |
officer: SVP Gerneral Counsel |
222 MERCHANDISE MART PLZ, SUITE 2024, CHICAGO IL 60654 |
| David B Stevens |
director |
1 IMATION WAY, OAKDALE MN 55128 |
| Leah Jones |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
222 MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, SUITE 2024, CHICAGO IL 60654 |
| Paul Black |
director |
400 WOOD ROAD, BRAINTREE MA 02184 |
| Elizabeth Ann Altman |
director |
10070 BARNES CANYON ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Thomas Langan |
officer: President and CCO |
222 MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, SUITE 2024, CHICAGO IL 60654 |
| Lisa Hammond |
officer: SVP & Chief HR Officer |
305 CHURCH AT NORTH HILLS STREET, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Greg Garrison |
director |
222 MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, CHICAGO IL 60654 |
| Lisa Khorey |
officer: Chief Client Delivery Officer |
222 MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, CHICAGO IL 60654 |
| Michael Klayko |
director |
|
| Carol J Zierhoffer |
director |
100 NORTH POINT CENTER EAST, SUITE 200, ALPHARETTA GA 30022 |
| Brian Farley |
officer: SVP Gerneral Counsel & Corpora |
222 MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, SUITE 2024, CHICAGO IL 60654 |
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